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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 22.7x - 25.1x | 23.9x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 32.6x - 36.0x | 34.3x |
Fair Value | $11.66 - $22.49 | $17.08 |
Upside | -25.3% - 44.1% | 9.4% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Orient Corporation | 8585 | TSE:8585 |
Acom Co., Ltd. | 8572 | TSE:8572 |
J Trust Co., Ltd. | 8508 | TSE:8508 |
Marui Group Co., Ltd. | 8252 | TSE:8252 |
Premium Group Co., Ltd. | 7199 | TSE:7199 |
Credit Saison Co., Ltd. | CSAS.Y | OTCPK:CSAS.Y |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
8585 | 8572 | 8508 | 8252 | 7199 | CSAS.Y | ||
TSE:8585 | TSE:8572 | TSE:8508 | TSE:8252 | TSE:7199 | OTCPK:CSAS.Y | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | -0.2% | -3.1% | NM- | 0.9% | 28.8% | 23.2% | |
3Y CAGR | -5.3% | 20.9% | 7.6% | 27.5% | 22.0% | 29.2% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -13.6% | -28.2% | 279.6% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 70.9% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 18.0% | 28.8% | 9.0% | 20.3% | 21.8% | 20.6% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 16.6% | 32.3% | 1.8% | 22.7% | 24.8% | 21.1% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 13.4% | 21.5% | 8.8% | 23.2% | 23.8% | 30.8% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 13.4% | 21.5% | 10.4% | 23.2% | 23.8% | 30.8% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 8.08x | 4.23x | 0.02x | 3.95x | 1.16x | 7.23x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 60.3x | 19.7x | 0.2x | 17.0x | 4.9x | 23.5x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 160.6x | 20.9x | 0.3x | 22.6x | 6.2x | 30.2x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 0.2x | 17.0x | 60.3x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 23.5x | 35.7x | 42.6x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 22.7x | 23.9x | 25.1x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 151,433 | 151,433 | 151,433 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 3,432,153 | 3,612,792 | 3,793,432 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (2,979,180) | (2,979,180) | (2,979,180) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 452,973 | 633,612 | 814,252 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 226.0 | 226.0 | 226.0 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 2,004.65 | 2,804.08 | 3,603.51 | ||||
FX Rate: JPY/USD | 144.6 | 144.6 | 144.6 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 13.86 | 19.39 | 24.92 | 15.61 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -11.2% | 24.2% | 59.6% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | 8585 | 8572 | 8508 | 8252 | 7199 | CSAS.Y | |
Enterprise Value | 1,982,672 | 1,333,199 | 2,743 | 1,008,764 | 41,810 | 3,489,213 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 216,805 | 60,268 | 123,458 | 49,250 | 17,159 | 139,399 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 77,407 | 1,454 | 16,794 | 114,121 | 66,139 | 299,171 | |
(-) Debt | (2,132,868) | (688,207) | (71,381) | (636,479) | (51,188) | (3,404,400) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (7,223) | (55,473) | (18,638) | (496) | (26) | (13,350) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 136,793 | 651,241 | 52,976 | 535,160 | 73,894 | 510,033 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 171.2 | 1,566.6 | 132.8 | 179.5 | 38.0 | 226.0 | |
Implied Stock Price | 799.00 | 415.70 | 399.00 | 2,981.50 | 1,943.00 | 2,257.17 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 144.60 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 799.00 | 415.70 | 399.00 | 2,981.50 | 1,943.00 | 15.61 | |
Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | USD | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 144.60 |