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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 15.7x - 17.4x | 16.5x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 12.3x - 13.6x | 13.0x |
| Fair Value | $2.12 - $2.33 | $2.23 |
| Upside | 36.1% - 49.6% | 42.9% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| China Cyts Tours Holding Co., Ltd. | 600138 | SHSE:600138 |
| Shanghai Jinjiang International Travel Co., Ltd. | 900929 | SHSE:900929 |
| Huangshan Tourism Development Co.,Ltd. | 600054 | SHSE:600054 |
| Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited | 780 | SEHK:780 |
| Anhui Jiuhuashan Tourism Development Co., Ltd. | 603199 | SHSE:603199 |
| Haidilao International Holding Ltd. | HDAL.F | OTCPK:HDAL.F |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 600138 | 900929 | 600054 | 780 | 603199 | HDAL.F | ||
| SHSE:600138 | SHSE:900929 | SHSE:600054 | SEHK:780 | SHSE:603199 | OTCPK:HDAL.F | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -12.3% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 25.5% | 9.8% | 13.8% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | NM- | 52.5% | 51.3% | 113.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -5.9% | 219.9% | -6.4% | 62.6% | 23.3% | 9.4% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 0.5% | -14.8% | 4.9% | 8.8% | 18.2% | 7.7% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 6.0% | -2.5% | 31.9% | 14.4% | 30.1% | 13.4% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 5.1% | 3.0% | 27.3% | 14.0% | 30.1% | 14.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 5.2% | 2.6% | 27.3% | 15.6% | 30.8% | 14.2% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.22x | 0.22x | 2.64x | 2.12x | 4.45x | 1.52x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 15.7x | 6.6x | 7.6x | 10.0x | 10.9x | 8.2x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 23.5x | 8.4x | 9.7x | 13.6x | 14.5x | 10.7x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 8.4x | 13.6x | 23.5x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 10.7x | 62.5x | 247.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 15.7x | 16.5x | 17.4x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 6,082 | 6,082 | 6,082 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 95,584 | 100,614 | 105,645 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 5,930 | 5,930 | 5,930 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 101,514 | 106,544 | 111,575 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 6,666.7 | 6,666.7 | 6,666.7 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 15.23 | 15.98 | 16.74 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/USD | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 2.12 | 2.23 | 2.33 | 1.56 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 36.0% | 42.7% | 49.4% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 600138 | 900929 | 600054 | 780 | 603199 | HDAL.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 12,272 | 181 | 5,402 | 37,815 | 3,659 | 68,731 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,510 | 116 | 1,669 | 10,929 | 233 | 9,580 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 2,391 | 919 | 686 | 3,788 | 70 | 2,502 | |
| (-) Debt | (6,860) | (16) | (326) | (4,980) | (15) | (6,168) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (2,176) | 3 | (199) | (971) | 0 | 16 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 7,137 | 1,204 | 7,231 | 46,580 | 3,947 | 74,661 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 723.8 | 132.6 | 619.7 | 2,299.0 | 110.7 | 6,666.7 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 9.86 | 9.08 | 11.67 | 20.26 | 35.66 | 11.20 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 7.18 | 1.00 | 0.91 | 1.00 | 7.18 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 9.86 | 1.27 | 11.67 | 22.15 | 35.66 | 1.56 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | USD | CNY | HKD | CNY | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 7.18 | 1.00 | 0.91 | 1.00 | 7.18 | |