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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 22.0x - 24.3x | 23.2x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 11.9x - 13.1x | 12.5x |
| Fair Value | $55.17 - $59.42 | $57.30 |
| Upside | -34.6% - -29.6% | -32.1% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| NEXON Co., Ltd. | 3659 | TSE:3659 |
| COLOPL, Inc. | 3668 | TSE:3668 |
| GREE Holdings, Inc. | 3632 | TSE:3632 |
| DeNA Co., Ltd. | 2432 | TSE:2432 |
| GungHo Online Entertainment, Inc. | 3765 | TSE:3765 |
| Nintendo Co., Ltd. | NTDO.F | OTCPK:NTDO.F |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 3659 | 3668 | 3632 | 2432 | 3765 | NTDO.F | ||
| TSE:3659 | TSE:3668 | TSE:3632 | TSE:2432 | TSE:3765 | OTCPK:NTDO.F | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 5.6% | NM- | -0.2% | 22.0% | -8.8% | -3.8% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 13.1% | NM- | 0.7% | 29.2% | -18.2% | -21.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 35.0% | -91.0% | NM | 431.6% | -44.2% | -45.5% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 36.6% | 12.9% | 11.8% | 13.6% | 26.8% | 33.0% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 33.3% | 9.7% | 17.0% | 5.3% | 23.2% | 32.7% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 33.3% | -3.6% | 10.3% | 23.3% | 17.8% | 25.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 34.2% | 0.5% | NA | 23.3% | 14.8% | 25.6% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 3.33x | 0.29x | 0.68x | 1.32x | 0.78x | 10.19x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.8x | 55.3x | 6.2x | 5.7x | 5.3x | 39.8x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 10.5x | -53.8x | 7.6x | 6.5x | 5.7x | 42.0x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.3x | 6.2x | 55.3x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.1x | 8.9x | 39.8x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 22.0x | 23.2x | 24.3x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 297,915 | 297,915 | 297,915 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 6,562,359 | 6,907,746 | 7,253,133 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 2,486,330 | 2,486,330 | 2,486,330 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 9,048,689 | 9,394,076 | 9,739,463 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,164.2 | 1,164.2 | 1,164.2 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 7,772.13 | 8,068.79 | 8,365.45 | ||||
| FX Rate: JPY/USD | 144.2 | 144.2 | 144.2 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 53.90 | 55.96 | 58.02 | 84.40 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -36.1% | -33.7% | -31.3% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 3659 | 3668 | 3632 | 2432 | 3765 | NTDO.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,506,173 | 7,335 | 38,158 | 219,011 | 79,145 | 11,681,852 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 585,846 | 60,004 | 62,068 | 92,803 | 96,638 | 2,058,190 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 61,277 | 0 | 9,351 | 59,506 | 0 | 429,259 | |
| (-) Debt | (37,923) | (666) | (19,700) | (49,875) | (1,302) | 0 | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (10,834) | (6) | (102) | (11,142) | (24,552) | (1,119) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 2,104,539 | 66,667 | 89,775 | 310,303 | 149,929 | 14,168,182 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 805.7 | 128.5 | 171.3 | 111.4 | 54.2 | 1,164.2 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 2,612.00 | 519.00 | 524.00 | 2,785.50 | 2,768.00 | 12,169.38 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 144.19 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 2,612.00 | 519.00 | 524.00 | 2,785.50 | 2,768.00 | 84.40 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 144.19 | |