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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 13.8x - 15.3x | 14.5x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 13.0x - 14.4x | 13.7x |
| Fair Value | $16.84 - $21 | $18.92 |
| Upside | -1.0% - 23.5% | 11.3% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Mitsubishi Estate Co., Ltd. | 8802 | TSE:8802 |
| Mitsui Fudosan Co., Ltd. | 8801 | TSE:8801 |
| Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corporation | 3289 | TSE:3289 |
| Nomura Real Estate Holdings, Inc. | 3231 | TSE:3231 |
| Tokyo Tatemono Co., Ltd. | 8804 | TSE:8804 |
| Sumitomo Realty & Development Co., Ltd. | SURY.Y | OTCPK:SURY.Y |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 8802 | 8801 | 3289 | 3231 | 8804 | SURY.Y | ||
| TSE:8802 | TSE:8801 | TSE:3289 | TSE:3231 | TSE:8804 | OTCPK:SURY.Y | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 4.5% | 6.6% | 10.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 3.8% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 3.1% | 12.9% | 14.0% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 5.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 9.0% | 8.4% | 15.7% | 5.5% | 28.7% | 5.7% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 26.5% | 18.2% | 14.2% | 17.7% | 22.7% | 32.1% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 25.0% | 19.9% | 15.4% | 18.0% | 24.3% | 33.9% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 25.9% | 19.5% | 17.1% | 18.5% | 22.1% | 34.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 25.9% | 19.5% | 17.1% | 18.5% | 22.7% | 34.2% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 3.59x | 2.62x | 1.73x | 2.57x | 3.05x | 5.35x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 13.9x | 13.4x | 10.1x | 13.9x | 13.5x | 15.7x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 18.3x | 18.5x | 14.1x | 16.3x | 17.2x | 20.0x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.1x | 13.5x | 13.9x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 14.1x | 15.7x | 17.8x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 13.8x | 14.5x | 15.3x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 346,397 | 346,397 | 346,397 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 4,781,213 | 5,032,855 | 5,284,498 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (2,830,406) | (2,830,406) | (2,830,406) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 1,950,807 | 2,202,449 | 2,454,092 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 865.7 | 865.7 | 865.7 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 2,253.33 | 2,544.00 | 2,834.67 | ||||
| FX Rate: JPY/USD | 143.9 | 143.9 | 143.9 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 15.66 | 17.68 | 19.70 | 17.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -7.9% | 4.0% | 15.9% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 8802 | 8801 | 3289 | 3231 | 8804 | SURY.Y | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,674,024 | 6,888,722 | 1,986,977 | 1,944,302 | 1,447,494 | 4,947,838 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 259,754 | 169,682 | 182,240 | 140,325 | 131,478 | 99,020 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 871,078 | 1,334,510 | 354,714 | 189,916 | 239,552 | 962,499 | |
| (-) Debt | (3,336,986) | (4,416,084) | (1,747,845) | (1,545,304) | (1,271,860) | (3,891,925) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (177,226) | (123,234) | (20,973) | (1,260) | (11,729) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 3,290,644 | 3,853,596 | 755,113 | 727,979 | 534,935 | 2,117,432 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,246.0 | 2,772.4 | 715.1 | 858.8 | 208.2 | 865.7 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 2,641.00 | 1,390.00 | 1,056.00 | 847.70 | 2,569.00 | 2,445.80 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 143.88 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 2,641.00 | 1,390.00 | 1,056.00 | 847.70 | 2,569.00 | 17.00 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 143.88 | |