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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 16.8x - 18.5x | 17.6x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 15.1x - 16.6x | 15.9x |
| Fair Value | ¥6.15 - ¥8.19 | ¥7.17 |
| Upside | -46.2% - -28.4% | -37.3% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Rizhao Port Jurong Co., Ltd. | 6117 | SEHK:6117 |
| Heilongjiang Transport Development Co., Ltd. | 601188 | SHSE:601188 |
| Shenzhen Expressway Corporation Limited | 600548 | SHSE:600548 |
| Nanjing Port Co., Ltd. | 2040 | SZSE:002040 |
| Liaoning Port Co., Ltd. | 601880 | SHSE:601880 |
| Shandong Hi-speed Company Limited | 600350 | SHSE:600350 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 6117 | 601188 | 600548 | 2040 | 601880 | 600350 | ||
| SEHK:6117 | SHSE:601188 | SHSE:600548 | SZSE:002040 | SHSE:601880 | SHSE:600350 | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 5.6% | -23.5% | -2.1% | 2.9% | 8.2% | 6.6% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 6.6% | -8.8% | -10.8% | 5.6% | -12.2% | -3.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -0.3% | 67.5% | -19.6% | 2.4% | -30.0% | -3.6% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 34.1% | 21.7% | 26.7% | 25.9% | 21.5% | 28.6% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 35.2% | 15.3% | 27.9% | 25.8% | 20.2% | 22.7% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 34.2% | 12.7% | 22.9% | 25.2% | 17.8% | 19.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 34.2% | 15.0% | 23.0% | 25.5% | 16.0% | 19.7% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.33x | 3.25x | 3.92x | 5.54x | 3.52x | 4.20x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.9x | 10.0x | 8.2x | 13.2x | 9.9x | 13.1x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 3.9x | 21.7x | 17.1x | 21.8x | 22.0x | 21.3x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 3.9x | 21.7x | 22.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 9.2x | 13.9x | 19.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 16.8x | 17.6x | 18.5x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 5,600 | 5,600 | 5,600 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 93,881 | 98,822 | 103,764 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (64,014) | (64,014) | (64,014) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 29,868 | 34,809 | 39,750 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 4,853.4 | 4,853.4 | 4,853.4 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 6.15 | 7.17 | 8.19 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 6.15 | 7.17 | 8.19 | 11.44 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -46.2% | -37.3% | -28.4% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 6117 | 601188 | 600548 | 2040 | 601880 | 600350 | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,121 | 2,726 | 34,749 | 5,566 | 37,577 | 119,537 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 447 | 621 | 8,306 | 659 | 5,882 | 4,498 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 1,684 | 20,020 | 226 | 3,217 | 20,681 | |
| (-) Debt | (333) | (201) | (33,854) | (824) | (12,692) | (75,019) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (287) | (5,334) | (654) | (3,637) | (14,173) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,235 | 4,543 | 23,887 | 4,973 | 30,347 | 55,523 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,660.0 | 1,305.5 | 2,112.1 | 489.9 | 20,504.6 | 4,853.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 0.74 | 3.48 | 11.31 | 10.15 | 1.48 | 11.44 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.92 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 0.81 | 3.48 | 11.31 | 10.15 | 1.48 | 11.44 | |
| Trading Currency | HKD | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.92 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |