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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 11.4x - 12.6x | 12.0x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 9.6x - 10.6x | 10.1x |
| Fair Value | ¥4.93 - ¥5.31 | ¥5.12 |
| Upside | -20.0% - -13.8% | -16.9% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Sichuan Expressway Company Limited | 601107 | SHSE:601107 |
| Jiangxi Ganyue Expressway CO.,LTD. | 600269 | SHSE:600269 |
| Dongguan Development (Holdings) Co., Ltd. | 828 | SZSE:000828 |
| Rizhao Port Co.,Ltd | 600017 | SHSE:600017 |
| Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. | 2930 | SZSE:002930 |
| Zhuhai Winbase International Chemical Tank Terminal Co.,Ltd | 2492 | SZSE:002492 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 601107 | 600269 | 828 | 600017 | 2930 | 2492 | ||
| SHSE:601107 | SHSE:600269 | SZSE:000828 | SHSE:600017 | SZSE:002930 | SZSE:002492 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 5.5% | 3.3% | -3.3% | 10.3% | 32.9% | 0.3% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 11.4% | -1.8% | -3.6% | 9.7% | 20.2% | -12.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 9.6% | 3.3% | -17.9% | 3.4% | -7.4% | -31.2% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 33.7% | 44.4% | 40.6% | 31.1% | 68.3% | 47.8% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 30.7% | 38.9% | 27.3% | 31.9% | 66.0% | 47.5% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 37.2% | 50.2% | 63.2% | 32.6% | 68.5% | 39.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 38.0% | 50.7% | 63.9% | 32.7% | 64.6% | 38.1% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 4.99x | 3.35x | 6.25x | 3.53x | 6.43x | 5.54x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 13.1x | 6.6x | 9.8x | 10.8x | 10.0x | 14.5x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 19.2x | 10.5x | 12.8x | 20.7x | 19.5x | 33.7x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.6x | 10.0x | 13.1x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.5x | 9.8x | 12.0x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 11.4x | 12.0x | 12.6x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 127 | 127 | 127 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,447 | 1,523 | 1,599 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 532 | 532 | 532 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 1,979 | 2,055 | 2,131 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 403.4 | 403.4 | 403.4 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 4.91 | 5.09 | 5.28 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 4.91 | 5.09 | 5.28 | 6.16 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -20.4% | -17.3% | -14.2% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 601107 | 600269 | 828 | 600017 | 2930 | 2492 | |
| Enterprise Value | 50,937 | 20,131 | 10,481 | 29,305 | 9,417 | 1,953 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 4,513 | 4,034 | 4,232 | 1,042 | 504 | 603 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 871 | 2,662 | 3,059 | 815 | 746 | 211 | |
| (-) Debt | (39,368) | (12,404) | (6,720) | (18,903) | (5,757) | (266) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (1,113) | (1,953) | (117) | (2,232) | (468) | (16) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 15,839 | 12,471 | 10,936 | 10,027 | 4,442 | 2,485 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,730.9 | 2,335.4 | 1,039.5 | 3,075.7 | 457.5 | 403.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 5.80 | 5.34 | 10.52 | 3.26 | 9.71 | 6.16 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 5.80 | 5.34 | 10.52 | 3.26 | 9.71 | 6.16 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |