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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 6.1x - 6.8x | 6.5x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 5.7x - 6.3x | 6.0x |
Fair Value | ¥1,087 - ¥1,276 | ¥1,181 |
Upside | 1.6% - 19.4% | 10.5% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Tokyo Kisen Co.,Ltd. | 9193 | TSE:9193 |
Tamai Steamship Co., Ltd. | 9127 | TSE:9127 |
Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd. | 9107 | TSE:9107 |
NS United Kaiun Kaisha, Ltd. | 9110 | TSE:9110 |
Azuma Shipping Co., Ltd. | 9380 | TSE:9380 |
Iino Kaiun Kaisha, Ltd. | 9119 | TSE:9119 |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
9193 | 9127 | 9107 | 9110 | 9380 | 9119 | ||
TSE:9193 | TSE:9127 | TSE:9107 | TSE:9110 | TSE:9380 | TSE:9119 | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | -3.0% | 18.2% | 24.4% | 11.6% | 2.5% | 17.9% | |
3Y CAGR | 16.2% | -11.9% | 36.0% | -4.8% | -0.4% | 17.5% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -35.9% | -4.1% | 16.8% | -3.5% | 28.0% | -3.8% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 9.4% | 27.4% | 10.0% | 18.6% | 4.6% | 18.7% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 13.8% | 27.4% | 13.5% | 17.0% | 3.8% | 23.5% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 9.2% | 30.3% | 14.5% | 15.5% | 4.9% | 22.0% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 9.2% | 30.3% | 14.5% | 15.5% | 4.9% | 22.0% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.44x | 0.20x | 0.22x | 0.47x | 0.26x | 1.33x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.7x | 0.7x | 1.5x | 3.0x | 5.3x | 6.0x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | -10.3x | 1.2x | 2.3x | 5.7x | 16.6x | 11.0x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 0.7x | 3.0x | 5.3x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.8x | 6.4x | 10.4x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.1x | 6.5x | 6.8x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 31,216 | 31,216 | 31,216 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 191,308 | 201,377 | 211,446 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (75,554) | (75,554) | (75,554) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 115,754 | 125,823 | 135,892 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 105.8 | 105.8 | 105.8 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 1,094.06 | 1,189.22 | 1,284.39 | ||||
FX Rate: JPY/JPY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1,094.06 | 1,189.22 | 1,284.39 | 1,069.00 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 2.3% | 11.2% | 20.1% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | 9193 | 9127 | 9107 | 9110 | 9380 | 9119 | |
Enterprise Value | (1,693) | 1,064 | 234,603 | 115,437 | 10,284 | 188,657 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 7,891 | 4,185 | 204,716 | 55,784 | 5,690 | 11,627 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 6,945 | 1,296 | 1,288,854 | 7,886 | 4,169 | 35,611 | |
(-) Debt | (2,960) | (1,513) | (344,860) | (85,316) | (10,808) | (122,652) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (1,038) | (43) | (29,015) | 0 | (128) | (140) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 9,145 | 4,989 | 1,354,298 | 93,791 | 9,207 | 113,103 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 10.0 | 1.9 | 631.8 | 23.6 | 28.1 | 105.8 | |
Implied Stock Price | 919.00 | 2,585.00 | 2,143.50 | 3,980.00 | 328.00 | 1,069.00 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 919.00 | 2,585.00 | 2,143.50 | 3,980.00 | 328.00 | 1,069.00 | |
Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |