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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 15.2x - 16.8x | 16.0x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 11.2x - 12.3x | 11.8x |
Fair Value | ¥95.01 - ¥106.69 | ¥100.85 |
Upside | 3.1% - 15.8% | 9.4% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Hua Hong Semiconductor Limited | 1347 | SEHK:1347 |
GlobalFoundries Inc. | GFS | NasdaqGS:GFS |
X-FAB Silicon Foundries SE | XFAB | ENXTPA:XFAB |
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | AMD_KZEUSW | KAS:AMD_KZEUSW |
Nexchip Semiconductor Corporation | 688249 | SHSE:688249 |
Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation | 688981 | XSSC:688981 |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
1347 | GFS | XFAB | AMD_KZEUSW | 688249 | 688981 | ||
SEHK:1347 | NasdaqGS:GFS | ENXTPA:XFAB | KAS:AMD_KZEUSW | SHSE:688249 | XSSC:688981 | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 11.2% | 14.7% | 42.6% | 43.3% | NM- | 37.7% | |
3Y CAGR | -11.2% | 14.6% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 11.6% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -11.0% | -11.6% | -24.4% | 53.2% | 6.0% | 41.0% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 27.7% | 29.5% | 20.4% | 19.6% | 44.9% | 42.9% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 28.0% | 35.0% | 26.8% | 17.0% | 45.1% | 43.2% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 19.2% | 32.9% | 22.1% | 20.0% | 42.0% | 43.2% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 20.4% | 32.2% | 22.2% | 21.2% | 41.7% | 45.7% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 5.24x | 3.00x | 1.56x | 10.30x | 6.43x | 8.77x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 25.7x | 9.3x | 7.0x | 48.6x | 15.4x | 19.2x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | -71.0x | 27.8x | 16.6x | 100.1x | 84.0x | 126.1x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.0x | 15.4x | 48.6x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.1x | 12.9x | 19.5x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 15.2x | 16.0x | 16.8x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 3,895 | 3,895 | 3,895 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 59,282 | 62,402 | 65,522 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (8,619) | (8,619) | (8,619) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 50,663 | 53,783 | 56,903 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 3,884.6 | 3,884.6 | 3,884.6 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 13.04 | 13.85 | 14.65 | ||||
FX Rate: USD/CNY | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 93.65 | 99.41 | 105.18 | 92.17 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 1.6% | 7.9% | 14.1% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | 1347 | GFS | XFAB | AMD_KZEUSW | 688249 | 688981 | |
Enterprise Value | 12,555 | 20,369 | 1,225 | 278,252 | 61,678 | 58,483 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 4,080 | 2,877 | 157 | 7,310 | 4,268 | 8,537 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 430 | 820 | 0 | 807 | 1,136 | 5,489 | |
(-) Debt | (2,301) | (1,631) | (426) | (4,731) | (18,696) | (11,255) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (2,607) | (50) | 0 | 0 | (5,169) | (11,390) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 12,157 | 22,385 | 956 | 281,638 | 43,216 | 49,864 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 2,253.3 | 554.9 | 130.6 | 1,621.4 | 1,944.0 | 3,884.6 | |
Implied Stock Price | 5.39 | 40.34 | 7.32 | 173.70 | 22.23 | 12.84 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.13 | 1.00 | 1.15 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.14 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 42.35 | 40.34 | 6.34 | 173.70 | 22.23 | 92.17 | |
Trading Currency | HKD | USD | EUR | USD | CNY | CNY | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.13 | 1.00 | 1.15 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.14 |