Bonds Analysis & Opinion

While it is far from the only important indicator for the markets, the 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread is very important because it takes what is probably the most important market for macro...

The US 10-year Treasury yield continues to fall, which is narrowing the gap between the higher market rate and a lesser “fair-value” estimate, based on the average of three models run by...

By Benjamin Schroeder10Y Bunds got pushed back to 2.2% but still struggled to move past that hurdle despite a heavy supply slate. The same goes for the 10Y UST at 4% ahead of tomorrow’s...

Just as interest rates are pulling back, one particular government rate appears to be nearing an important moment.The 10-Year Germany Bond yield. Above is a long-term “monthly” chart of...

Several risk-on indicators surged higher into year-end, such as small-cap stocks and junk bonds.And as we typically see, this coincided with a big year-end stock market rally. Today, we take a look at...

U.S. Treasuries ended the year roughly at the same place they began, concealing some wild moves for the 10-year benchmark in 2023. Its yield remained virtually unchanged year-over-year, at 3.88%. Yet...

The past few years have seen interest rates soar. But perhaps it’s a case of too far, too fast.Today we look at interest rates in the form of treasury bond yields. And more specifically, the...

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve maintained its key interest rate unchanged for the third consecutive time. As inflation subsides and the US economy remains resilient, the Federal Open Market...

By Benjamin SchroederThe surprise from the FOMC was partly the extra 25bp implied cut added to 2024, but it was more the lack of pushback from Chair Powell on the 2024 rate cut narrative. He almost...

Today’s update of the “fair-value” model for the US 10-year Treasury yield reaffirms that the benchmark rate appears unusually high relative to the economic fundamentals.Although...

The average 2024 Wall Street S&P 500 forecast is for a gain of 6.50% next year. In the past, a 6.50% expectation, while slightly lower than historical averages, was a no-brainer when choosing...

By Benjamin SchroederMarket expectations of policy easing for the next year are about to get tested tonight with the Federal Reserve likely to signal that there is still a job to get done. Yesterday's...

The yield on the US 2-year Treasury rose almost 18 basis points for the week to 4.73% reinforcing the yield curve inversion as the yield on the 30-year Treasury was down 8 basis points to 4.31% and...

By Benjamin SchroederPayrolls day is usually pivotal. This one more than most, as the US 10-year has fallen sharply from 5% down towards 4% without material evidence of any labor market recession. We...