Market Overview Analysis & Opinion

Nowcasting the business cycle isn’t getting any easier. Despite a firehose of data and an expanding list of analytical techniques, benchmarks, and related research at researchers’...

What can breakeven inflation rates tell us about oil prices, energy stocks, and market direction? It turns out it’s a lot more than you think.Since 2021, as the impact of an economic shutdown...

“‘Knockin’ on Heaven’s Door’ is a song by American singer-songwriter Bob Dylan, written for the soundtrack of the 1973 film Pat Garrett and Billy the Kid. Released as...

US futures are indicating a lower open amid Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) loss. European equity markets have opened lower, after Asian markets finished down. Global sentiment damaged by high UK headline and...

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and GOP leaders unveiled a bill that, in theory, temporarily solves the debt-ceiling crisis that’s brewing. In practice, the path ahead is probably no less...

As higher-for-longer gains further traction, yield curves are bear flattening again. Only moderately, though, as risk sentiment holds up with the acute banking crises fading from viewHigher-for-longer...

US equity futures are indicating a lower open as of 05:00 ET. This follows a mixed performance in Asia, while European equity markets are mostly lower. Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) recouped after-hours...

In yesterday’s post, I profiled my thinking on the big-picture outlook for estimating the risk associated with the debt-ceiling battle that’s brewing in Washington. To round out this...

US yields are rising across the curve but T-bills are at the intersection of a better economic outlook and a debt ceiling. Sterling rates are now offering a pick-up to dollar equivalents. This makes...

US futures are pointing to a marginally higher open. European equity markets have opened positive, following lower levels in Asia. There’s attention on disconnect between markets pricing in...

The answer relies heavily, perhaps completely, on political calculations. In other words, trying to forecast how the tortured path ahead evolves is only a bit easier than trying to grab fish in a...

Markets are still waiting for the data smoking gun that proves that a recession is coming and that inflation is a problem of the past. Until then, rates should continue to rise toward the top of their...

Oil prices are hurtling above $80 a barrel for both Brent and WTI futures.Oil reached a year-to-date high in morning trading on April 12 as traders watched demand and a report from a US company...

US futures are indicating a slightly higher open. European equity markets have opened positive, following a mostly strong performance in Asia. Cautious start to this week given the influential Chinese...