Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield vs. a ‘fair value’ estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com narrowed to a three-month low in June. The market-based yield is still well above this...

A month ago it was reasonable to wonder if the worst was over for fixed-income securities writ large. Four weeks later, Treasury prices are slightly higher, but the debate continues as investors...

European yields for 10-year bonds saw a notable rise in June but relief arrived in the first week of July. They slightly declined throughout the week except for the 10-year German Bund whose yield...

The recent upheaval in France’s bond market hints at a potential turning point for the wealthiest nations within the eurozone. Traditionally, the volatility seen today was more common in high-debt...

France and Germany See Economic Slowdown The PMI surveys, carried out by S&P Global/HCOB, revealed weak demand IS impacting France's economic activity for the second month in a row. The PMI Flash...

When stocks are in a bull market, we tend to see assets like growth stocks and junk bonds perform well as investors are in “risk-on” mode. And oftentimes, these are the assets to start...

The US 10-year Treasury yield continues to defy The Capital Spectator’s ‘fair-value’ estimate by trading at a premium to this model, but the relatively wide gap still appears to be a constraint to...

The sharp drop in Treasury yields in recent days has revived chatter that the worst for the bond market may be over. It’s still early to confidently forecast that scenario, but the odds for recovery...

When the US Treasury yield curve inverts (short rates rise above long rates) the shift is widely viewed as a reliable forecast that a recession is near. But this time has been different, or so it...

A ‘fair-value’ estimate of the US 10-year Treasury yield was steady in April while the market level for the benchmark rate continued to rise well above the theoretical level. But trading...

The stock market keeps on pushing higher despite. Against this backdrop, investors should exercise caution due to high valuations and market cyclicality. Bonds offer attractive returns and can reduce...

Fed Holds Rates Steady, Signals Slower Balance Sheet Reduction During its last April meeting, the Federal Reserve met and as anticipated by most market watchers, left interest rates unchanged at the...

Foreign fixed-income markets from a US investor perspective have been an unappealing asset class lately – with a glaring exception: corporate bonds in emerging markets. Year to date, this slice...

Government bond yields and interest rates have been rising all around the world. And investors aren’t quite sure what to make of it.Perhaps there is some complacency that has set in after years...