Salesforce.com: Trade War, Large Deals May Hurt Q2 Earnings

* Reports Q2 2019 results on Thursday, Aug. 22, after the close

* Revenue expectation: $3.95 billion

* EPS expectation: $0.47

Salesforce.com (NYSE:CRM), which sells software and cloud-based services to corporate clients, has failed to impress investors this year even after announcing the largest acquisitions of its corporate history. It will get another chance today when it reports its second-quarter earnings after the market close.

Despite the company’s long record of producing blow-out quarters, its shares have come under pressure since the San Francisco-based customer relationship management firm announced in June that it’s acquiring software maker Tableau Software (NYSE:DATA) for $15.3 billion. Its stock has lagged the broader market, falling 8% since then. The stock closed yesterday at $147.36.

Salesforce price chart

The all-stock deal was Salesforce’s largest transaction ever as part of its move to expand into the business intelligence market. According to the company, the Tableau deal will boost sales this year and bring the company further into competition with software giants Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Oracle (NYSE:ORCL), both of which offer business intelligence tools.

But investors are concerned that the company is moving too quickly to buy growth and that this activism may hurt its core business of cloud applications market. After buying Tableau and paying a 40% premium over its market price, Salesforce concluded another deal this month when it bought ClickSoftware Technologies Ltd. for about $1.35 billion in cash and stock.

Flurry of Deals

The flurry of these deals comes at a time when there are signs that demand for its enterprise software is cooling as large corporate clients delay their spending decisions amid the U.S.-China trade war. Research firm Gartner predicted in April that the spending on such software would rise 7.1% this year, down from 9.3% growth last year.

Salesforce Co-Chief Executive Marc Benioff, while acknowledging these threats in the last quarterly call with analysts, said that he was still upbeat about the company’s growth prospects this year. For the current year, Salesforce expects earnings per share of $0.78-$0.80, while maintaining its forecast for revenue to be between $16.1 billion and $16.25 billion.

Bottom Line

Saturating markets in the U.S. and concerns about Salesforce.com’s acquisitions may prolong the bearish period its stock has landed in. But, in our view, the company is entering a new phase of growth which makes its stock an attractive buy on weakness.

There is no reason not to believe Benioff when he says the company is on track to reach an annual revenue goal of $26-28 billion by fiscal year 2023, especially when he has a great track-record of delivering consistently over the past decade. One important number to watch in today’s earnings is the company’s global expansion.

In its June earnings, Salesforce reported 25% year-over-year revenue growth in the Americas, 27% in the APAC region and 32% in EMEA on a constant currency basis. If that trend continues, investors are likely to forgive some slackness in the domestic markets.