ING Economic and Financial Analysis

The US Federal Reserve could soon deliver the last hike of the current cycle. While United States 10-Year yields have seen their peak already, it will need the imminent prospect of rate cuts to...

US yields are rising across the curve but T-bills are at the intersection of a better economic outlook and a debt ceiling. Sterling rates are now offering a pick-up to dollar equivalents. This makes...

With two weeks to go before the Fed and ECB meetings, central bank speakers have their last chances to steer market expectations before the quiet periods start. However, it appears markets have fully...

Chinese GDP data was better than expected, while other Chinese activity data was also strong. The data releases helped to push metal prices higher, however, oil was more rangeboundEnergy- Strong...

Oil prices came under pressure yesterday on the back of a stronger USD.Energy - Progress on Northern Iraqi Oil ExportsOil prices started the trading week on a weak footing. ICE Brent settled 1.8%...

Markets are still waiting for the data smoking gun that proves that a recession is coming and that inflation is a problem of the past. Until then, rates should continue to rise toward the top of their...

FX markets continue to be buffeted by opposing forces and are struggling to define short-term trends. Despite some positive Chinese activity data, Asian currencies are not rallying, suggesting that...

Improved risk sentiment has seen oil trade higher over the week, whilst supply concerns have only added further strength. OPEC+ meet early next week and we expect the Joint Ministerial Monitoring...

After the US regional banking crisis and the forced takeover of Credit Suisse (SIX:CSGN) sent shockwaves through global markets, concerns over the risk of contagion rippled across the financial...

We think EUR/USD may break 1.10 next week before the US payrolls, as the dollar remains vulnerable despite some repricing of dovish Fed expectations.USD: Struggling to find supportThe dollar has...

With the yen bearing the brunt of the risk rally, the dollar saw some delayed benefits from the re-tuning in Fed rate expectations and enjoyed a modest recovery yesterday. Today, all eyes will be on...

Concerns over the banking sector have led to a move towards safe haven assets and gold has clearly benefited from this. While we see a short-term pullback in prices, we expect these to strengthen over...

Emergency Fed support for banks is at Great Financial Crisis proportions on some measures. Deposit flight from smaller banks remains a worry to boot. It should not be, but is. That said, there is...

Markets have reassessed the risks to European lenders and looked considerably less concerned as markets re-opened on Monday. If this calm in Europe continues, monetary policy divergence is what may be...

No banking contagion news allows rates to jump back, but we doubt more than one Fed hike can be priced by the curve. This means the 2Y hovering around a 4% yield. Euro rates have more upside on a...

The recent failure of two US banks, SVB and Signature, have understandably triggered a major re-appraisal of Fed tightening prospects. This has seen two-year EUR/USD swap rate differentials move to...