The U.S. economy added to the strength of the greenback yesterday, with retail sales figures showing more growth than anticipated in July. In concrete terms, this was the largest monthly increase of the year, which on the whole, appears to point to respectable economic growth in the third quarter (+-3%). Obviously, two more readings are still to come, but considering something else we learned yesterday, namely that U.S. Household Debt was up 4.5% vs. the previous year, the likelihood of such an outcome is relatively high.
This morning at 8:30, the real estate market south of the border will be on the agenda. It is possible that July Housing Starts and Building Permits will join a robust job sector and rising consumer confidence in terms of good news. The minutes of the most recent Federal Reserve meeting released at 2 p.m. today will also definitely be worthy of attention.
Lastly, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) believes that Chinese authorities will do everything in their power to achieve their 2020 GDP target (+6%). Accordingly, the IMF believes that their debt will reach 290% of GDP by 2022, a troubling level.
Stéphane Goulet
Range of the day: 1.2685 -1.2795