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As we await the next tariff news from the Trump administration, it is noticeable that some European currencies are outperforming. The Scandies, in particular, and some parts of the Central and...
The combination of wider interest rate differentials and broadening US tariffs are providing continued support to the US dollar. We can't see that changing this week USD: More Tariffs Are...
The US dollar remains in corrective mode on the back of this week's tariff news and the drop in 10-year US yields. Tomorrow's US jobs data will have a big say in whether this correction needs to go...
We expect the Federal Reserve to deliver a consensus 25bp cut on Wednesday, but also to scale back on guidance for rate cuts next year. We think this will allow the US dollar to stay firm into...
The US dollar has come back bid this week. Any upside surprise to today’s US November core CPI number would trigger another leg higher in the dollar – as would only a 25bp rate cut from the Bank of...
The escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict had only a short-lived impact on FX, and safe-haven demand has rapidly faded. The balance of risks is shifting more to the upside for the US dollar, also...
We are entering a period of calm in US macro news. This means that it’s mostly up to any positioning readjustment to keep the US dollar from rallying further. Growing focus will be on the eurozone...
The US dollar remains at risk of positioning-led corrections, but so far macro data and Fed communication have not offered any USD-negative catalyst. Yesterday, Fed Chair Powell emphasised the...
As the dust settles after last week’s US election results, global markets are settling into core trades of a firmer US dollar, higher US equities and higher terminal rate from the Fed. Importantly in...
If anyone was expecting the US election result and UK budget to significantly impact the Fed and BoE policy message, they were let down by two consensus 25bp cuts and rather balanced guidance. In FX,...
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