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We expect the Federal Reserve to deliver a consensus 25bp cut on Wednesday, but also to scale back on guidance for rate cuts next year. We think this will allow the US dollar to stay firm into...
The US dollar has come back bid this week. Any upside surprise to today’s US November core CPI number would trigger another leg higher in the dollar – as would only a 25bp rate cut from the Bank of...
The escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict had only a short-lived impact on FX, and safe-haven demand has rapidly faded. The balance of risks is shifting more to the upside for the US dollar, also...
We are entering a period of calm in US macro news. This means that it’s mostly up to any positioning readjustment to keep the US dollar from rallying further. Growing focus will be on the eurozone...
The US dollar remains at risk of positioning-led corrections, but so far macro data and Fed communication have not offered any USD-negative catalyst. Yesterday, Fed Chair Powell emphasised the...
As the dust settles after last week’s US election results, global markets are settling into core trades of a firmer US dollar, higher US equities and higher terminal rate from the Fed. Importantly in...
If anyone was expecting the US election result and UK budget to significantly impact the Fed and BoE policy message, they were let down by two consensus 25bp cuts and rather balanced guidance. In FX,...
It’s been busy in FX markets with surprisingly strong 3Q growth in Europe and an aggressive tax-and-spend budget from the UK Labour government. Eurozone rates and the EUR/USD could stay more...
Growth figures for 3Q are published in the US and eurozone today. German CPI is also expected to have re-accelerated, but the impact on the euro may be limited. In the UK, Chancellor Reeves announces...
ECB decision this week could affect euro pairs, with EUR/GBP in focus. EUR/GBP is at a critical support level, and the ECB's decision could trigger a rebound. Meanwhile, GBP/USD is on an upward...
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