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If anyone was expecting the US election result and UK budget to significantly impact the Fed and BoE policy message, they were let down by two consensus 25bp cuts and rather balanced guidance. In FX,...
Donald Trump won the election by a clearer and wider margin than what was expected, and the Republicans gained control of the Senate. In the short-term, we believe this outcome is likely to be...
The latest UK government budget, which saw big tax rises but even bigger spending increases projected for 2025-26, has forced markets to rethink Bank of England expectations. Rates are expected to...
The S&P 500 had a much larger move than I anticipated. I thought we might see some kind of rebound, but I didn’t expect the big move we saw on Tuesday. That was a surprise, as I expected implied...
Potential retracements in the Nasdaq 100 remain a possibility after a strong rally. Ahead of the Fed's rate decision today, the tech index is eyeing another push into uncharted territory. Key...
Commodities are recovering this morning after yesterday’s heavy sell-off on the back of a surge in the US dollar following Trump’s win Energy – Hurricane Rafael Shuts in Oil Production Oil prices...
After a day dominated by the resounding success of the Republican party, FX markets today return to the more familiar territory of central bank policy meetings. These take place in the US, UK,...
Donald Trump's win and the Republican sweep of the House (probably) and the Senate (certainly) is consistent with our Roaring 2020s scenario. Indeed, it increases the odds that the good times will...
So, Trump won the election as expected. Yesterday also marked the completion of the implied volatility reset that began yesterday, with the VIX 1-Day dropping from around 30 to 15 and the VIX index...
Markets around the world are experiencing a significant reversal following unexpected election results. The U.S. Dollar index is rising, impacting other currencies, while bond prices are down,...
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