(Adds settlement prices)
Aug 24 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed to their highest in nine months on Monday as tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico curbed output, even as liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports continued to rise.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 rose 2.7% to settle at $2.513 per million British thermal units, having earlier touched their highest since Nov. 27 at $2.554.
Energy companies shut 44.6%, or 1,205 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd), of natural gas output due to twin storm threat in the Gulf of Mexico, the federal Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) said on Sunday. previously a hurricane, weakened to a tropical storm on Sunday, while Tropical Storm Laura was forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by early Tuesday, the U.S. National Hurricane Centre (NHC). is still a possibility that Laura could become a Category 2 or a Category 3 hurricane next week. ... So, we are going to see some production losses because of the shutdown," said Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago.
"(However,) the question is if the production loss is going to be bigger than demand," he said, adding that expectations of improvement in the global LNG exports market is offering some additional support to prices.
U.S. LNG exports were on track to rise in August for the first time in six months. a seasonal cooling of the weather expected in September, Refinitiv projected U.S. demand, including exports, would slide from an average of 91.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 87.4 bcfd in the coming weeks.
Week ended
Week ended
Year ago Five-year
Aug 21
Aug
Aug 21
average
(Forecast)
14(Actual)
Aug 21
U.S. natgas storage (bcf):
+50
+43
+60
+49
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year 10-Year
30-Year Norm
Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs
6
5
5
11
10 U.S. GFS CDDs
197
204
179
165
158 U.S. GFS TDDs
203
209
184
176
168
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week Next Week This Week
Five-Year
Last Year Average For
Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
88.6
87.1
87.3
79.1 U.S. Imports from Canada
6.6
6.9
6.8
8.0 U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2 Total U.S. Supply
95.2
94.0
94.1
87.3
U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada
2.0
1.9
1.9
2.2 U.S. Exports to Mexico
5.7
5.9
5.7
4.4 U.S. LNG Exports
4.7
5.0
4.7
2.0 U.S. Commercial
4.5
4.5
4.6
4.5 U.S. Residential
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.3 U.S. Power Plant
41.8
42.5
38.8
36.6 U.S. Industrial
21.6
21.5
21.5
20.6 U.S. Plant Fuel
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.3 U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.0 U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1 Total U.S. Consumption
77.9
78.7
75.0
71.4 Total U.S. Demand
90.4
91.5
87.4
80.0
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
2.39
2.35
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
1.30
1.20
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
3.20
3.25
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL
1.15
1.09
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
2.15
2.21
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
1.31
1.40
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
4.09
5.10
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
1.24
1.75
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL
26.75
25.50
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL
29.00
28.00
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL
33.00
28.00
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL
32.08
18.75
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL
105.50
145.00
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL
57.00
77.25