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Nervous Baltics on war footing as NATO tries to deter Russia

Published 2016-06-13, 03:00 a/m
© Reuters.  Nervous Baltics on war footing as NATO tries to deter Russia

* NATO defence ministers to approve new deployments
* Baltics say force too slight and ask for air defence help
* Russia says build-up on its borders is unjustified

By Robin Emmott and Andrius Sytas
VILNIUS, June 13 (Reuters) - Leaders in the Baltic countries
and Poland fear the force NATO plans to deploy on their
territory is too small and symbolic to deter an attack by
Russia, whose 2014 annexation of Crimea is fresh in the memories
of the former Soviet-bloc states.
They will this week press other ministers of the western
military alliance to help them build an air defence system
against Russian aircraft and missiles. But that would be a
highly sensitive step, likely to be condemned by Moscow as yet
more evidence of a NATO strategy threatening its borders.
Asked about the likelihood of Russian aggression in the
Baltics, Lithuania's Defence Minister Juozas Olekas told
Reuters: "We cannot exclude it ... They might exercise on the
borders and then switch to invasion in hours."
Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia see themselves on the front
line in any potential conflict with Moscow and say they are
putting their armies on a war footing, meaning they can be
mobilised almost immediately.
NATO defence ministers are set to agree this week on a new
multinational force of 4,000 troops for the Baltics and Poland.
The United States, Germany and Britain are set to lead
battalions of about 1,000 troops each. Canada may lead a fourth.

While the Baltic nations welcome the deployments, they say
the build-up must go further - pointing to Russia's efforts to
develop an "anti-access" capability in the Kaliningrad exclave
bordering Lithuania and Poland, using missiles and submarines to
stop NATO moving reinforcements into the Baltics.
The Baltics want NATO fighters to protect their skies and
are seeking medium-range missile interceptors from Norway's
Kongsberg Gruppen KOG.OL and U.S. defence contractor Raytheon
RTN.N .
"We need to stop possible air aggression," said Olekas. "We
are discussing creating a regional medium-range air defence
system together with the Latvians, the Estonians and the Poles."
Olekas expects to raise the matter with NATO colleagues at
the ministers' meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday in Brussels.

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CREDIBILITY
The head of the Estonian defence force Lieutenant General
Riho Terras said: "The first and foremost is the defence of our
airspace. Air defence is the challenge that needs to solved
together with the NATO alliance."
"We are not talking about defence of Lithuania, we are
talking about the credibility of the whole alliance," said
Lithuania's Foreign Minister Linas Linkevicius.
But such calls would require stretched NATO governments to
beef up the so-called air policing mission that regularly
intercepts Russian jets flying over international waters close
to the the Baltic states.
The Baltic nations rely on their NATO allies' quick reaction
aircraft to patrol their skies, with no mandate to confront
hostile aircraft in a conflict.
Four British Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets and four
Portuguese F-16 fighter jets are currently carrying out the air
policing mission. Officials say a lot more would be needed for
air defence.
And southern NATO nations, focused on uncontrolled migrant
flows and the failing states on Europe's borders, may also be
unwilling to grant more resources to the eastern flank.
Ben Hodges, the commander of the U.S. army in Europe,
visited Vilnius last week. He echoed Baltic concerns about the
strength of NATO's deterrence.
"It is a transition," Hodges said. "I hope that includes
serious war fighting capabilities. Just putting garrisons of
troops sitting in the countries ... will not deter."
Russia insists it poses no threat to the former Soviet
states. Top NATO officials say talk of an impending attack is
misleading, a view shared by Paris and Berlin.
Russia has held unannounced exercises on the borders of the
Baltics, including one in 2014 which mustered 100,000 troops,
according to Danish Colonel Jakob Sogard Larsen, who heads the
new NATO command outpost in Lithuania.
"You see it differently when you live here," Larsen said.
"We need to learn to fight total war again," he said, in a
sign of the return of a Cold War-style mood.
Lithuanian officials accuse Russia of trying to buy off
Lithuanian soldiers and business people to become spies for the
Kremlin, intimidating diplomats and spreading disinformation on
the Internet and television.
Prosecutors are preparing to file criminal charges against
someone they say is a high-ranking Russian intelligence officer
arrested last year trying to recruit informants.
Russia denies any such activities.

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SWITCH TO "CLASSIC WARFARE"
The NATO battalions are part of a deterrent to be approved
by leaders at a summit in Warsaw in July. That will involve
forces on rotation, warehoused equipment and a "spearhead" force
backed by NATO's 40,000-strong rapid reaction force.
Once the decision is made, Germany could deploy to Lithuania
before September. Britain is expected to deploy to Estonia, the
United States to Latvia and Canada possibly to Poland.
German and Danish soldiers fanned out across swamps and
woodland in Lithuania this week in war games to learn the
unfamiliar Baltic terrain and test their ability to move
equipment and personnel quickly to a possible front.
Their tanks and armoured vehicles were recently brought back
from Afghanistan, desert-yellow camouflage painted over with the
green-and-black colours of Baltic woodlands.
"We are changing our focus from counter-insurgency tactics
back to classic warfare," said German Lieutenant Colonel
Marc-Ulrich Cropp from his camouflaged command tent at a
Lithuanian military base. "Everyone has to be prepared."

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