August 15 was supposed to be the day North Korea launched missiles at Guam. Wisely, after carefully analyzing the plan, it would seem that Kim Jong Un has decided to adopt a wait-and-see approach instead. Such a context is allowing the greenback to continue its tempered rise against the other major currencies this morning. The statement yesterday by New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley that he would be favourable to another key rate increase this year is no doubt also in some part responsible.
Strangely, however, stock markets, which usually do not appreciate the idea of seeing the cost of corporate borrowing rise, are heading toward a positive opening after gaining ground the previous day. Crude oil prices remain under pressure, with losses totalling close to 3% since Friday.
It is possible that the release of U.S. retail sales data for July at 8:30 this morning could add support to the USD. Any indications that are favourable to economic growth will lend further credence to the idea of new monetary tightening.
Stéphane Goulet
Range of the day: 1.2680 – 1.2790