December Gold settles 1326.7 up .80 cents for the week of August 29th through September 2nd, 2016
Gold ended its liquidation theme on Friday to finish the week higher by the slimmest of margins. The August monthly non-farm payroll number disappointed as it came in at a weak 151K jobs created for the month missing expectations. Gold’s rallied up to its best level for the week following the payroll data release as the weak job data lessened the chance for a September rate hike. Prior to the payroll data rallies again were sold in both gold and silver has traders exited some of their extended long positions in the market for a second straight week. Slight rallies in the dollar index and a weakening energy complex also aided gold’s decline before Friday’s jobs data. The last COT report showed gold long 322K contracts while silver came in this week long 86K. Gold traded all the way down to the 100 day moving average on liquidation mid week before holding that level into Friday’s jobs data.
Whether this month’s jobs data is weak enough to delay a September rate hike we won’t know until the Fed meets on the 20th and 21st. Although I hate to predict such action, it is my view is that they will remain dovish until post presidential election and wait until December at the earliest to raise rates. Therefore we look to the charts for near term market direction. The 50 day moving average sits up at 1342.6 and with a close over 1364 could be next basis December futures. Longs in the market don’t seem to want to give up the ship amid continued uncertainty for the U.S. and global economy. While Gold’s performance has been lackluster for the month since the highs made at 1374 on August 2nd. Today’s report coupled with some bargain hunting out of number one world buyer India just ahead of festival and wedding season may have reversed the downtrend ahead of the Fed’s next meeting later in the month.
Weekly Swing #s GCZ 16 for the week of September 5th
through September 9th
Resistance#2- 1350.7
Resistance#1- 1338.8
Pivot- 1322.0
Support#1- 1310.0
Support#2- 1293.5