Canada released Housing Starts (MoM) Thursday for December 2019 at 197,300 vs. an expectation of 210,000. Building Permits (MoM) for November 2019 were released as well at -2.4% vs. -1.5% expected. These data points by themselves do not provide much value, however taken with the recent weaker-than-expected manufacturing, retail sales and trade data, the BOC may have to start considering lowering rates when they meet again on January 22. On Friday we see the Employment Change (MoM) for December for Canada. While November’s number was surprisingly weak last month at -71,000, December’s expectation is for a return to positive territory at 25,000. One bright side to Canadian data is that inflation has remained in check.
Toward the end of December 2019, USD/CAD finally broke down from its long-term, symmetrical triangle and its upward sloping multi-year trendline that has been in place since 2012. In addition, last week the pair broke below the 200-week moving average near 1.3070.
Source: Tradingview, FOREX.com
The rise in crude oil prices likely helped contribute to this move as the direction of crude oil and the price of the Canadian dollar are positively correlated (crude oil and USD/CAD are inversely related). However, with Wednesday’s large move lower in oil (and Thursday’s continued selloff), prices in USD/CAD have reversed. Crude oil futures are currently holding support near 58.65.
Source: Tradingview, NYMEX, FOREX.com
USD/CAD is now running into horizontal resistance near 1.3100. This level also coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the November 20 highs to the December 31 lows. The RSI has also moved into overbought territory indicating that prices may turn lower soon. Short-term resistance comes across at the 50% retracement level of the previously mentioned timeframe near 1.3140, and then a cluster of resistance near 1.3200, including the 61 8% Fibonacci retracement level, horizontal resistance and a retest of the upward sloping trendline on the weekly timeframe. Support comes across at the 200-week moving average at 1.3070 and recent lows near 1.2950.
Source: Tradingview, FOREX.com
Ahead of this writing, Bank of Canada’s (BOC) Governor Poloz was scheduled to speak. He may try and clarify the BOC’s position on interest rates. In addition, traders may try and position themselves ahead of both U.S. and Canadian payroll data due on Friday. We also need to continue to watch crude oil for price direction. The combination of these factors should keep USD/CAD volatile over the next 24 hours.