Facebook Earnings Preview: Profit Beat Could Power Stock Despite Regulatory Probes

* Reports Q3 2019 results on Wednesday, Oct. 30, after the close

* Revenue expectation: $17.36B

* EPS expectation: $1.9

When social media giant Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) reports its third-quarter earnings tomorrow, it has to show it's succeeding in balancing out slowing growth at its main platform by attracting users to its other digital properties.

This is a challenging task that will ultimately establish whether Facebook is a good or bad investment. It’s no secret that the company is finding it hard to draw more users to its main social network, its so-called “big blue app.”

The number of daily users of the Facebook social network and FB Messenger app increased to 1.6 billion people in the second quarter, growing 8% from the year ago period. That rate was the second-slowest in the company’s history.

In Europe, the U.S. and Canada — which together generate about three-fourths of Facebook’s quarterly revenue — user numbers haven’t changed for about two years.

This slowdown hasn’t yet meaningfully impacted sales, but it could at some point if CEO Mark Zuckerberg doesn’t show any progress in monetizing Facebook's other social media assets, such as Instagram and WhatsApp. Fortunately, there are clear signs that Zuckerberg’s plan to diversify the company’s revenue base is well on track.

Upbeat Earnings Forecasts

While growth at the main Facebook app has slowed, the company is still adding users rapidly on other properties. A total of 2.7 billion people use at least one Facebook-owned app — Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp or FB Messenger — every month, making it the world’s largest social network.

Encouraged by this growth strategy, analysts have generally upbeat forecasts for the company’s revenue and profit. Facebook will likely report $17.36 billion in sales tomorrow, a surge of about 26% when compared to the same period a year ago, according to analysts’ consensus forecast. Profit per share is seen rising 8% to $1.9 vs $1.46 in the year-earlier period.

Facebook Weekly Chart

That said, the challenges for Facebook are pretty daunting. It’s one of the top technology companies facing multiple regulatory probes focused on the monopolistic power of its platform, potential for misuse and the company’s data practices.

The U.S. Department of Justice is carrying out an antitrust probe of Facebook, while the Federal Trade Commission is also undertaking a separate investigation into antitrust issues. Last week, the New York Attorney General Letitia James announced that 45 states — plus Guam and the District of Columbia — are investigating whether the company harmed competition.

The fear of regulatory actions has kept Facebook shares under pressure over the past three months. At Monday's close, the stock was trading at $189.4, down about 5% since the end of July. But another blowout quarter, in our view, will be enough to again power up the stock, which this summer was flirting with another record high.

Bottom Line

Going forward, there's no guarantee the challenges for the world’s largest social media platform will disappear. In the latest conference call with analysts in July, the company’s chief financial officer warned that Facebook’s slowdown in revenue growth could extend beyond this year, as growing limitations on how much personal data Facebook can collect and use for ads will make it tough to make money through advertising sales.

Despite this tough operating environment and the company’s cautionary tone, the reality is that there is no other platform as powerful nor as global as Facebook is. We don’t believe that that power is diminishing, which is one of the main reasons we continue to like Facebook stock despite the ups and downs.