Germany's Radical Fiscal Shift: Unlimited Debt for Defense and Infrastructure
Germany is undergoing a significant economic transformation, marked by a strategic shift in fiscal policy. The newly elected Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has announced an ambitious plan to abandon strict fiscal rules, allowing Germany to raise unlimited debt for defense and infrastructure investments. This marks the most radical policy shift since the country’s reunification in 1990.
The shift comes after geopolitical tensions escalated following Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw U.S. military and intelligence support from Ukraine. European leaders, particularly in Germany, have been forced to respond with substantial increases in defense spending. Merz’s government has committed to a €500 billion infrastructure investment, including decarbonization projects, rail network expansions, and housing developments. This has been illustrated in markets with Heidelberg (ETR:HDDG) Materials and Rheinmetall (ETR:RHMG) being part of the best-performing stocks on the DAX since these announcements.
Market Reactions to Germany’s Bold Economic Transition
Additionally, Germany is playing a key role in the European Union’s broader €800 billion defense funding initiative, reflecting a major strategic realignment.
In response to these developments, bond markets have experienced turbulence. The 10-year bund yield posted its largest one-day increase since 1990, pulling up yields across the Eurozone. The European Central Bank (ECB) reacted by cutting interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to 2.5%, signaling a cautious approach to further reductions due to concerns over inflation fueled by higher government spending.
German ETF Landscape Overview
The German ETF Equity landscape, comprising 39 funds, holds assets under management (AuM) of approximately €27 billion. Recent market movements have shown a positive week-to-date (WTD) aggregate performance of 2.58%, while the aggregate year-to-date (YTD) return stands at an impressive 15.52%. This indicates significant investor confidence despite broader economic uncertainties.
Flows into German Equity ETFs have been substantial. Aggregate weekly inflows reached €1.13 billion, contributing to aggregate YTD inflows of €2.82 billion.
Top Performing German ETFs
The Mid Cap Germany ETFs have been benefitting the most from these developments. Among the standout funds, the Deka MDAX® UCITS ETF (ETR:ELF1) has delivered a WTD return of 7.03% and a YTD performance of 18.29%. With inflows of €382 million this week, it remains a key player in the market.
Other notable ETFs include:
- Invesco MDAX® UCITS ETF (ETR:DEAM): €559 million in AuM, WTD return of 4.45%, YTD return of 15.46%.
- iShares MDAX® UCITS ETF (BIT:EXS3): €1.5 billion in AuM, WTD return of 4.45%, YTD return of 15.47%.
German Large Cap ETFs have also had a strong 2025, such as the Amundi DAX UCITS ETF (AK8H) posting an impressive year-to-date performance of 17.59%, and a slightly weaker week-to-date performance than its Mid Cap counterparts, at 3.85%.