Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) recently unveiled its latest quantum computing chip called Willow, marking a significant breakthrough in the field. The Willow chip, consisting of 105 superconducting qubits, can reduce errors exponentially as it scales up, addressing a major challenge in quantum error correction that has persisted for nearly 30 years.
In a remarkable demonstration of its capabilities, Willow performed a standard benchmark computation in under five minutes that would take one of today's fastest supercomputers approximately 10 septillion years (10^25 years) to complete.
This achievement represents a crucial step towards building useful, large-scale quantum computers. Willow demonstrates real-time error correction on a superconducting quantum system, which is essential for practical quantum computation.
While not yet commercially applicable, Google envisions that this technology could eventually lead to solving complex problems in fields such as medicine, battery chemistry, and artificial intelligence that are currently beyond the reach of classical computers.
What is Quantum Computing Anyway?
Quantum computing is a revolutionary approach to computing that harnesses the principles of quantum mechanics to perform calculations. Unlike traditional computers that use bits (0 or 1), quantum computers use quantum bits, or qubits, which can exist in multiple states simultaneously thanks to a phenomenon called superposition.
Quantum Computing Market Outlook
According to BCG's report published in July 2024, titled "The Long-Term Forecast for Quantum Computing Still Looks Bright," the quantum computing sector is projected to create $450 billion to $850 billion of global economic value by 2040, sustaining a $90 billion to $170 billion market for hardware and software providers.
Despite a 50% decline in overall tech investments, quantum computing attracted $1.2 billion in venture capital funding in 2023, indicating ongoing investor confidence. The report outlines a three-phase market maturation: noisy intermediate-scale quantum (until 2030), broad quantum advantage (2030-2040), and full-scale fault tolerance (post-2040).
BCG forecasts a provider market of $1 billion to $2 billion by 2030, driven by public sector support, corporate investments in enterprise-grade quantum capabilities, and emerging supply chain opportunities.
While near-term value creation estimates have been adjusted, the long-term potential remains robust, with BCG partner Jean-Francois Bobier noting that "the momentum is undeniable" despite quantum computing not yet demonstrating its advantage at scale.
Investing in Quantum Computing with ETFs
There are many companies working on quantum computing applications beyond just Google, making it challenging to identify potential future winners in this rapidly evolving technological landscape.
However, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) offer a way to gain exposure to a basket of stocks that could benefit from the quantum computing revolution, spreading the risk and potentially capturing growth across the sector.
Defiance’ QTUM ETF
The only pure-play Quantum ETF available is Defiance Quantum ETF (NASDAQ:QTUM). The fund provides exposure to companies driving advancements in transformative computing technologies, including machine learning, quantum computing, and cloud computing.
The fund trades on the NASDAQ and has an expense ratio of 0.40%.
How QTUM ETF Works
Its underlying index, the BlueStar Quantum Computing and Machine Learning Index (BQTUM), tracks around 71 globally listed stocks of all market capitalizations.
The index is rules-based and focuses on companies involved in quantum computing and advanced computing systems, such as hardware, data connectivity solutions, cooling systems, and big data management for machine learning. Index components are equally weighted with liquidity considerations, and the index is reviewed and rebalanced semi-annually.
QTUM ETF Allocations
As of September 30, 2024, the fund’s primary country allocations are the United States (54%) and Japan (12%). In terms of subsectors, quantum computing technology accounts for 42% of the portfolio, followed by machine learning services (20%), AI and application chips (14.5%), GPU and other hardware (12%), and big data and cloud computing (12%).
QTUM ETF Holdings
As of December 13, 2024, the fund comprises 73 holdings with the top 10 holdings collectively representing 35.29% of the total net assets.
Rigetti Computing Inc (RGTI) is the largest holding at 9.08%, followed by D-Wave Quantum Inc (QBTS) at 7.15% and Ionq Inc (IONQ) at 4.95%. Other key holdings include Microstrategy Inc (MSTR) at 3.28%, Marvell Technology Inc (NASDAQ:MRVL) at 1.91%, and Coherent Corp (NYSE:COHR) at 1.76%.
Additional notable names include International Business Machines Corp (NYSE:IBM) at 1.59%, Ntt Data Group Corp (9613 JP) at 1.56%, Wipro Ltd (NS:WIPR) (WIT) at 1.53%, and Tower Semiconductor Ltd (NASDAQ:TSEM) at 1.49%. These companies are at the forefront of innovation in quantum computing, machine learning, and advanced technology infrastructure.
QTUM ETF Performance
As of December 13, 2024, QTUM has delivered an impressive year-to-date (YTD) return of +44%, outperforming both the SPY (NYSE:SPY) ETF (+28%) and the QQQ ETF (+30%).
QTUM ETF Flows
QTUM has experienced a significant increase in inflows over the past month, exceeding $80 million. Year-to-date, the fund has attracted $135 million in new investments. A portion of this recent surge occurred last week, following Google's major update.
The fund’s performance and latest inflows have boosted the ETF’s assets to over $445 million, its highest since its inception in 2018.
Why Invest in QTUM ETF?
QTUM ETF offers investors a unique opportunity to gain focused exposure to the transformative potential of quantum computing. This groundbreaking technology is revolutionizing optimization and problem-solving, while quantum-powered machine learning is driving innovation across industries such as finance, cybersecurity, and logistics.
As artificial intelligence reaches new frontiers with the support of quantum advancements, QTUM positions investors to capitalize on the immense potential of these disruptive technologies.
However, investors should be aware that this technology is still in its early stages, and the companies underlying QTUM are likely to encounter various challenges, including regulatory hurdles, increasing competition, financial pressures, and other risks that may contribute to volatility.