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Avi Gilburt
The Fed Is Trying to Pull a Fast One By Avi Gilburt - Feb 24, 2023

The Fed has recently released the hypothetical scenarios for its 2023 supervisory stress test. This test is conducted annually to show how the banks are likely to perform in a recessionary...

James Picerno
Estimate for U.S. Q1 GDP Skews Slightly Negative By James Picerno - Feb 22, 2023

The economic rebound in the second half of 2022 looks challenged in early estimates for first quarter GDP, based on the median for a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.US output is on...

Lance Roberts
Recession Signals Mount as Consumers Struggle to Pay Bills By Lance Roberts - Feb 17, 2023 1

We recently discussed the recession signals from the NFIB (National Federation Of Independent Business) and the inverted yield curve. “As in 2019, we see many of the same recession signals from...

Antoine Bouvet
Rates Spark: Crucial Levels Ahead By Antoine Bouvet - Feb 16, 2023

Data steepens the curves from the back endRates were pressured higher on the back of the much-better-than-expected retail sales data. A potential weather-related bounce in the data for January had...

Antoine Bouvet
Rates Spark: Higher for Longer Hits Selectively, for Now By Antoine Bouvet - Feb 15, 2023

Higher-for-Longer Narrative Hurts Bond LongsMonthly US inflation came in line with expectations in January. After hesitating, rates went resolutely higher. Given the lack of a clear signal in the CPI...

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