Natural Gas movements on Mar. 10 suggest an ongoing base formation, with indications that bulls are preparing for a possible push higher. This is evident from the successful completion of the floor test at $2.488 after testing the day's low at $2.462.
The reluctance to hold $2.5 could generate an upward move before this weekly closing. Confirmation of this potential upward shift could be seen with two breakouts: one above $2.589 and a second above $2.767.
It is evident that the bulls have established a base formation at $2.520, as seen with similar movements on February 24th, 2023, which led to a breakout to reach $3 on March 3rd, 2023.
This weekly closing matters a lot for both bulls and bears, particularly as the current weather conditions continue to favor the latter. However, news regarding the resumption of Freeport Terminal operations is encouraging for bulls, who are expected to remain aggressive in the coming week.
Despite growing volatility, directional moves will continue to defy the odds as the news flow will likely impact the short-term direction of prices.
While natural gas futures are currently within bearish territory, there is potential for a breakout above the significant resistance level at $3.586, which could keep the uptrend intact next week.
However, despite the increasing aggressiveness among bears, fear may still keep them in check due to the potential for sudden changes in the weather. Also, the full resumption of the Freeport terminal could potentially reverse the downward trend and push prices upward.
Regardless, wild price swings will continue to occur with every directional move in the coming week, given the ongoing uncertainty and changing weather patterns.
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Disclaimer: The author of this analysis does not have any position in Natural Gas futures. Readers are advised to take any position at their own risk; as Natural Gas is one of the most liquid commodities of the world.