Natural Gas Prices Tumble, Volatility Spikes Post EIA Outlook

Movements in natural gas prices since Feb. 3, when the futures tested a multi-year low at $2.341 after a sudden jerky move from $2.514, make this level a pivotal point both for the bulls and bears as the EIA’s short-term outlook on Feb. 7 indicates Henry Hub natural gas spot price will average $3.40 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2023, down almost 50% from last year and about 30% from our January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecast.

Undoubtedly, the short-term weather outlook is still warmer up to mid-February but could take a U-turn and will remain colder till late March due to delayed winters.

Technically speaking, a reversal from the lows tested on Feb.3, keeping the natural gas futures 5% above the lows tested on Feb. 3, looks evident enough to hit $3.6 soon as the same hedge funds which started to push the natural gas futures from the peak at $10.005 on Aug.23, 2022, could keep the prices upward above the pivotal point at $3.5.

Natural Gas Futures 15 Minutes Chart

In the 15-minute chart, natural gas futures are maintaining above 200 DMA after a breakout on Feb. 6, post the EIA short-term outlook, which looks evident enough to continue to form a base at the current levels before the advent of the next bullish move before this weekly closing.

Indeed, volatility could remain higher as wild price swings will be there due to weather uncertainty till the mid of this month. Natural gas futures could see a range-bound trade between $2.777 to $3.858 as NatGasWeather.com reports indicate that weather systems with mild to cool temperatures will impact the West and Northern Plains with highs of 30s to 60s.

On the other hand, central, southern, and eastern US will be very nice, with highs of 50s to 80s. A colder weather system will track into the central US late in the week with rain, snow, and chilly highs of 10s to 30s, lows of -0s to 30s, then tracking into the East this weekend for a modest bump in national demand. Overall, VERY LOW demand for natural gas through Friday, then MODERATE this weekend.

Disclaimer: The author of this analysis does not have any position in Natural Gas futures. Readers are advised to take any position at their own risk, as Natural Gas is one of the most liquid commodities of the world.