Despite a surge in the potential impacts of a drastic arctic blast, driving the possibilities of a steep rise in heating demand for natural gas this week could have held the natural gas futures above the recent high at $4.370 on Jan. 13, 2025.
After testing this high, natural gas futures slid and hit a low at $.3.735 on Jan. 14, amid possible resultant risks of a supply shortage of weather-related storage.
Such a possible wobbly move seems a result of a fight between the bulls and bears at this point of seasonal moves by the natural gas prices.
Since January 14, I find that the bears are flexing their muscles above $4.201 and could continue to push natural gas futures below this level which normally provides an opportunity to short natural gas futures, particularly in the second week of January.
Undoubtedly, both the natural gas bulls and bears could have their supportive reasons as the potential of a cold blast and supply disruption natural gas bears likely to find strong reasons amid changing possibilities of energy policies by incoming US President-Elect Donald Trump in January.
According to some analysts, Donald Trump could make it easier for some producers of liquified natural gas to seek export permit renewals as soon as he resumes office, to generate more tariffs on European and some Asian countries, if they don’t buy more and more US oil and gas.
Technical Levels to Watch
In the daily chart: Natural gas futures are teetering at a pivotal point at $3.995, indicating a step out could generate a fresh selling spree after a gap-down opening on upcoming Monday.
Undoubtedly, this week’s closing level will define the final direction move as the traders are busy assessing the impact of Trump’s energy policies.
A steep surge in weather-related demand and supply of natural gas could be set aside if President-Elect Donald Trump’s energy policies inclined towards the use of fossil fuel and wind energy.
I find that the natural gas futures are currently trading in a bearish territory as today’s bearish candle, indicating this slide could likely continue during the upcoming weeks.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in natural gas futures as this analysis is based only on observations.