WTI crude oil prices dropped by nearly 4% this week, ending at around 68 dollars per barrel, as Saudi Arabia announced plans to increase production in December, abandoning its previous $100 per barrel target. This move, widely seen as a preemptive step ahead of an anticipated OPEC+ supply increase, has led to a significant drop in oil and energy-related ETFs.
Saudi Arabia's Shift Sends Oil ETFs Lower
Saudi Arabia, the world's third-largest oil producer, is set to boost output in anticipation of an OPEC+ decision in December. The expected supply surge comes at a time when demand appears to be lower than initially forecast, putting downward pressure on prices. As a result, crude oil ETPs fell by 2.80%, while energy-focused ETFs dropped by 1.63%.
Notable ETF performers include the SPDR® MSCI Europe Energy UCITS ETF (SIX:STNX), which lost 3.21%, and the WisdomTree WTI Crude Oil ETF (LON:CRUD), down by 3.08%. These funds track energy companies and crude oil prices, making them particularly sensitive to market shifts like this.
Impact of Increased Oil Supply
The increase in supply from both Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ members signals a shift in strategy as the group adjusts to current market conditions. This adjustment comes despite the U.S. maintaining its position as the world's top oil producer at 13.3 million barrels per day in 2023, with Russia and Saudi Arabia following at 10.1 and 8.9 million barrels per day, respectively.
OPEC+, whose share of the oil market accounted for 49% in 2023, will likely formalize this decision in December, further impacting energy ETFs and crude oil prices.