WTI and Brent crude oil are both under pressure again to start the new week after Friday’s OPEC meeting ended in confusion and acrimony. Contrary to initial reports, the cartel didn’t issue a new production level at all; the 31.5 mmbbl/d number that had been rumoured was just the current production level. Members decided to hold off on a production decision until their June meeting to give time to see what production level Iran will actually be at when it returns to the market in 2016, and to account for Indonesia rejoining OPEC. Hopes for a 1 mmbbl/d production cut were dashed and it appears the supply war may continue full tilt for at least another six months if not longer.
NOK and CAD are trading lower in tandem with falling crude prices. The oil retreat also has been dragging on energy stocks to start the week again. This can be seen in the underperformance of the FTSE (which is down on the day) relative to the Dax due to the UK market’s higher weighting in oil and gas stocks relative to its continental peers.
In Europe today, corrections of Thursday’s huge moves continue in normal backing and filling. EUR has been giving back more of its gains while indices like the Dax and CAC continue to claw back their losses. As the initial shock of Thursday’s ECB decision and Friday’s strong US nonfarm payrolls work their way through the markets, traders in Europe appear to be recognizing that economic conditions have been improving (today shown by better than expected German factory orders), which can work its way through to a more positive outlook for corporate earnings.
US indices are trading up slightly to start the week as they consolidate Friday’s nonfarm payrolls driven gains at higher levels. We’re entering a quieter week for US news that could see traders digest last week’s big announcements and position ahead of next week’s big FOMC meeting.
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