We've transitioned from the vibes-cession a year ago to the Taylor Swift economy today that just seems to shake off any short-run negative indicators. The latest catchphrase that might have legs is the “RINO” recession – a Recession In Name Only.
However you want to describe it, there’s no doubt that economic resilience has been fearless and there’s been an ongoing love story between price action and the bulls on Wall Street. But is there a blank space for more gains ahead? We can gain clues from key upcoming investor conferences as the sometimes-volatile third quarter presses on.
So Far So Good
It has been a solid start to the second half already. Stocks are higher across the board – from large-cap stalwarts to risk-on small caps. Both the value and growth styles are participating, too. This comes after a January through May stretch that saw a heavy concentration of gains in just a handful of mega-caps.
The latest twist is a steep drop in the dollar. The US Dollar index dipped below the psychologically important 100 level late last week, and that typically lifts share prices of foreign stocks. So, it’s like an all-skate out there, though the banks showed lacklustre performances on the first big day of the Q2 earnings season. We’ve already seen more sizable single-stock moves this week, and the next two weeks are sure to feature more fireworks.
First-Half Takeaways
Our analysts noticed an unusual trend as we look back on the first half of 2023. There were far fewer investor conferences this year compared to last. When aggregating conferences, summits, trade shows, forums, and seminars, total events were down 15% versus 1H22.
We can only speculate on what that could indicate, but with economic uncertainty running high and firms forced to tighten their purse strings during this ongoing earnings recession, perhaps this is just a lull. Should global real GDP growth expectations head higher and corporate profits rebound in 2024, then maybe the event count will follow suit. Something to watch at the very least.
Questions to Ponder
Interest rates are higher, and debt is coming due. What are CEOs' and CFOs' capital allocation plans?
With the Swifty economy in full swing, will executives be getting back together with bold capex plans or is there still bad blood between the C-suite and previous failed investments?
(Ok, enough of that.) What do all stakeholders want to hear about? Even Kroger (NYSE:KR) mentioned it eight times on their Q1 conference call.
What about layoff plans? The jobs market remains tight despite inklings here and there about emerging softness.
Is China’s relaxation of overseas IPO listings a potential boon to global underwriting activity? Is a modest M&A pick-up a harbinger of healthier capital markets?
Finally, the question that seems to recur as the economy teeters is: What kind of landing will stick? Amid healthy employment numbers and solid consumer spending data, a hard landing is becoming less likely (though our LERI indicator counters that assertion), but will an economic contraction be bypassed altogether?
All this and more in the weeks ahead. Conferences, summits, seminars, and other gatherings of leaders across the corporate world are critical for investors to follow. Here are some of the major conferences sourced by Wall Street Horizon that investors and traders should keep on their Q3 calendars.
Information Technology & Communication Services
August 10: Morgan Stanley Media and Communications Corporate Access Day
August 22: Needham 4th Annual Semiconductor and SemiCap 1X1 Conference (virtual)
August 29: Jefferies Semiconductor, IT Hardware & Communications Infrastructure Summit
August 30: Deutsche Bank Technology Conference
August 31: Morgan Stanley Asia Tech Conference
September 5: Deutsche Bank dbAccess European Technology, Media, and Telecommunication Conference
September 6: Citi Global Technology Conference
September 6: Goldman Sachs Communacopia Technology Conference
Health Care
August 15: UBS MedTech, Tools, and Genomics Summit
September 6: Citi 18th Annual BioPharma Conference
September 6: Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference
September 7: Goldman Sachs 20th Annual European Medtech and Healthcare Services Conference
September 11: Morgan Stanley 21st Annual Global Healthcare Conference
September 12: Baird Global Healthcare Conference
September 13: Bank of America Global Healthcare Conference
Consumer Discretionary & Consumer Staples
August 9: JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) Auto Conference
September 5: Barclays Global Consumer Staples Conference
September 12: Goldman Sachs 30th Annual Global Retail Conference
September 20: Wells Fargo 6th Annual Consumer Conference
Financials & Real Estate
August 15: Citi ASEAN Financials and Real Estate Investment Forum
September 5: Goldman Sachs, Annual EMEA Credit and Leveraged Finance Conference
September 6: Raymond James U.S. Bank Conference
September 11: Barclays Global Financial Services Conference
September 12: Bank of America Global Real Estate Conference
September 19: Bank of America Banking and Insurance CEO Conference
September 19: {{0|Bank of America Merrill Lynch}} Financial CEO Conference (London)
Industrials
August 7: 12th Annual Needham Virtual Industrial Tech, Robotics, & Clean Tech 1x1 Conference
September 5: UBS Business Services, Leisure, and Transport Conference
September 6: Jefferies Industrials Conference
September 6: Morgan Stanley Industrial CEOs Unplugged
September 12: RBC (TSX:RY) Capital Markets Global Industrials Conference
September 27: Berenberg Business Services & Testing, Inspection & Certification
Energy & Utilities
September 5: Barclays CEO Energy-Power Conference
September 11: UBS Global Energy Transition Conference
September 19: Raymond James Energy Supply Chain (virtual)
Materials
September 12: Berenberg Food Ingredients & Chemicals Conference
September 21: Raymond James Strategic Metals & Materials (virtual)
Regional
September 6: UBS 26th Annual Nordic Financial Services Conference
September 6: UBS Best of Switzerland Conference
September 6: Jefferies Asia Forum
September 11: Goldman Sachs Asia Pacific Conference (GSAC)
September 11: Morgan Stanley 26th Annual Latin America Conference
September 18: Berenberg/Goldman Sachs 12th German Corporate Conference
Investor Specific & Multi-Sector
August 9: Wells Fargo 8th Annual FinTech & Technology Services Forum
August 16: Sidoti August Micro-Cap Conference
August 23: Nordea Small & Mid Cap Days
September 6: JP Morgan European High Yield and Leveraged Finance Conference
September 6: Citi GEM Conference
September 19: JP Morgan Emerging Markets Credit Conference