Volatility poked its way through the front door for a moment, but then quickly hit the road again. The growth scare over the first weekend of August feels like a memory today with stocks gaining back a solid chunk of previous losses.
It’s not an all-clear, though, as the August through October period is notorious for bouts of fear and downside price action.
Parsing the Data and Listening for Clues
For now, investors are on edge with each passing data point. What have normally been generally innocuous economic indicators, such as the ISM Services survey and weekly Initial Jobless Claims, are suddenly make-or-break reports.
That theme could pass by the wayside soon with major events on tap, such as Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.
Lower Rates Ahead...
Recall it was two years ago when Jay jolted markets in a bad way, suggesting that households may have to endure significant “pain” over the quarters ahead so that crippling inflation would subside.
The CPI rate has since fallen below 3% on a year-on-year headline look, so mission accomplished there, I suppose. Then, in August 2023, Powell put forth a more optimistic, but still cautious, tone.
The Fed “navigates by the stars under cloudy skies,” was his monetary-policy mantra. Over the past 12 months, pundits and CEOs alike have been patient with the first rate cut.
...And CEO Confidence Isn’t Bad
The wait is almost over. The first quarter-point ease is on the doorstep, and it could even be a jumbo 50-basis-point cut depending on how macro data shakes out between now and September 18.
All the while, CEOs are feeling somewhat better about the state of business. The Conference Board’s CEO Confidence Survey for Q3 dipped sequentially, but remains above 50, suggesting a “moderately optimistic” stance.
Solid Corporate Earnings
And they have at least some reason to feel upbeat. Second-quarter earnings verified above expectations, and guidance wasn’t half-bad either. While retailers are still reporting (and NVIDIA has yet to post quarterly numbers), about 79% of S&P 500 companies have topped EPS estimates.
It appears that Q2’s earnings growth rate may finalize north of 10%, too. What’s more, FactSet’s consensus data points to even better year-on-year quarterly profit-growth figures come Q4.
The Consumer Take
The consumer isn’t quite as cheery. The Conference Board also reported that households feel slightly better about the future state of the economy, but their collective view of present conditions deteriorated in July.
Despite rising real wages and growth in the jobs market, families remain on edge. Toss election uncertainty into the mix along with ongoing frustration regarding the cost of living, and the sour mood on Main Street is something companies might have to just get used to for a while.
Focus on the Fall Conference Season
Indeed, there are many crosscurrents facing executives and investors today. The upcoming conference season may shed light on corporate hiring plans, capital allocation decisions, and major themes such as AI and potential upcoming policy changes on Capitol Hill.
Fasten your seatbelt for what could be a wild ride ahead. Here are the major events to mark on your calendar:
Information Technology & Communication Services
August 21: Needham 5th Annual Semiconductor and SemiCap 1X1 Conference (virtual)
August 26: Stifel Tech Executive Summit
August 27: Evercore ISI Semiconductor, IT Hardware & Networking Conference
August 27: Jefferies Semiconductor, IT Hardware & Communication Technology Summit
August 28: Deutsche Bank Technology Conference
September 3: Barclays (LON:BARC) Media and Telecom Forum
September 4: Citi Global Technology, Media, and Telecommunications TMT Conference
September 5: Bank of America Media, Communications & Entertainment Conference
September 9: Goldman Sachs Communacopia Technology Conference
September 10: Wolfe Research TMT Conference
Information Technology & Communication Services
August 21: Needham 5th Annual Semiconductor and SemiCap 1X1 Conference (virtual)
August 26: Stifel Tech Executive Summit
August 27: Evercore ISI Semiconductor, IT Hardware & Networking Conference
August 27: Jefferies Semiconductor, IT Hardware & Communication Technology Summit
August 28: Deutsche Bank Technology Conference
September 3: Barclays Media and Telecom Forum
September 4: Citi Global Technology, Media, and Telecommunications TMT Conference
September 5: Bank of America Media, Communications & Entertainment Conference
September 9: Goldman Sachs Communacopia Technology Conference
September 10: Wolfe Research TMT Conference
Health Care
August 22: JP Morgan Healthcare Day
August 27: Stifel Back-to-School Healthcare Series
September 4: Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference
September 4: Morgan Stanley 22nd Annual Global Healthcare Conference
September 10: Baird Global Healthcare Conference
September 17: Cantor Fitzgerald Global Healthcare Conference
September 18: Bank of America Global Healthcare Conference
Consumer Discretionary & Consumer Staples
September 3: Barclays Global Consumer Staples Conference
September 4: Goldman Sachs 31st Annual Global Retail Conference
September 5: Bank of America Gaming and Lodging Conference
September 18: Wells Fargo 7th Annual Consumer Conference
Financials & Real Estate
September 4: 25th Annual Scotiabank (TSX:BNS) Financials Summit Conference
September 4: Raymond James U.S. Bank Conference
September 5: Raymond James Banking on Tech Conference
September 9: Barclays 22nd Global Financial Services Conference
September 10: Bank of America Global Real Estate Conference
September 12: Wolfe Research Private Real Estate Conference
September 23: Deutsche Bank 32nd Annual Leveraged Finance Conference
September 24: Bank of America Securities 29th Annual Financials CEO Conference
September 26: Goldman Sachs European Real Estate Equity & Debt Conference
Industrials
September 3: UBS Business Services, Leisure, and Transport Conference
September 4: Jefferies Industrials Conference
September 4: Morgan Stanley Industrial CEOs Unplugged
September 5: Gabelli Funds 30th Annual Aerospace and Defense Symposium
September 24: RBC Capital Markets Global Industrials Conference
Energy & Utilities
September 2: Barclays 38th Annual CEO Energy-Power Conference
September 9: ROTH 11th Annual Solar & Storage Symposium
September 10: NYSE Energy & Utilities Investor Access Day (virtual)
September 10: Morgan Stanley European Utilities and Energy Summit
September 30: Wolfe Research Utilities, Midstream, and Clean Energy Conference
Materials
September 4: UBS Global Materials Conference
September 15: Gold Forum Americas
September 20: Raymond James Virtual Strategic Metals & Materials Conference (virtual)
Regional
August 20: Morgan Stanley Nasdaq Virtual Investor Conference in Asia (virtual)
August 21: Citi ASEAN Thematics Investor Conference
September 2: UBS China Conference
September 2: Bank of America Japan Conference
September 3: Goldman Sachs EMEA Credit & Leveraged Finance Conference
September 4: Deutsche Bank Access European TMT Conference
September 9: Morgan Stanley 27th Annual Latin America Conference
September 11: Goldman Sachs China Conference
September 25: Citi China Industrial, SMID, Transport Conference
Investor Specific & Multi-Sector
August 20: Investor Summit Group - MicroCap Forum
August 21: Nordea Small & Mid Cap Days
August 27: Bank of America Virtual Conference (virtual)
August 28: J.P. Morgan CEO Conference Call
September 3: Carnegie Small & Mid Cap Seminar
September 5: Piper Sandler 10th Annual Macro Conference
September 5: Stifel Cross Sector Conference
September 16: RMB Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) 15th Annual Big Five Investor Conference