Last week's market and economic data key points:
PCE inflation rose steadily
U.S. GDP grow 2.8% in 3Q
Dow, S&P 500 end November at record highs
Retail stocks climb on black Friday boost
JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) drops tesla lawsuit
U.S. 10-year yields drop to 4.18%
Gold swings ahead of fed’s rate cut
WTI crude drops to $68
Yen hits six-week high, dollar dips for month-end
Euro gains on dollar as ECB bets shift
British pound gains, pound-dollar up for week
Asian equities set for monthly falls on Trump tariff fears
Ethereum rockets to $3,700, bitcoin lags this week
Dogecoin loses momentum, snaps 6-week bull run
Last Week’s Economic Reports:
GDP Growth: U.S. economy grew 2.8% in Q3 2024, following 3.0% in Q2, signaling strength and boosting consumer spending.
Inflation: PCE price index rose 2.3% YoY; core PCE up 2.8%, showing steady inflation pressures.
Income Growth: Personal income rose 0.6% MoM; disposable income up 0.7%, giving consumers more to spend.
Spending: Personal spending increased 0.4% in October, indicating confidence and contributing to GDP.
Healthy Balance: Spending grew slower than income, reducing risks of debt and financial instability.
Last Week’s Earnings Reports:
Zoom (ZM)
Q3 Revenue: $1.18B (+4% YoY), surpassed estimates.
EPS: $1.38 (non-GAAP), exceeded expectations.
Highlights: Launched Custom AI Companion & webinars for 1M attendees; raised FY revenue forecast to $4.656B–$4.661B.
Concerns: Slower growth pace; increased competition from Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) affecting market share.
CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD)
Q3 Revenue: $1.01B (+29% YoY); ARR exceeded $4B (+27% YoY).
Gross Margin: 78%; customer retention 97%; free cash flow $230.6M (23% of revenue).
Setbacks: GAAP net loss of $0.07/share; July software incident extended sales cycles; weaker forecast led to a 6% stock drop.
Technical Outlook: Bullish trend towards $377–$387 as long as price stays above $332.75. Breaking below $332.75 risks a decline to $295.
READ FULL MARKET MORNINGIndices Performance:
Market Gains:
Dow +7.5%, Nasdaq +6.2%, S&P 500 +5.7% in November.
Dow and S&P 500 hit all-time highs.
Fed Outlook:
Inflation gauge (core PCE) at 2.8% YoY, up from 2.7%.
Traders see a 66% chance of a 25 bps rate cut in December.
SPX Technicals:
Key resistance: Fibonacci level at 6,100; RSI shows weakening momentum.
Possible moves:
Rejection → decline to 5,870 (support zone).
Breakout above 6,030 → potential further gains.
Stock Market Sector Performance:
Consumer Cyclical: +3% (higher spending and confidence).
Healthcare: +2.8% (medical tech advances, drug trials).
Real Estate: +2.7% (strong demand, rising home sales).
Consumer Defensive: +2.5% (steady demand during Black Friday).
Industrials: +2.3% (infrastructure spending, industrial output).
Financials: +2.23% (favorable interest rates).
Technology: +0.21% (chip stocks rebound, mixed semiconductor performance).
Energy: -1.05% (falling oil prices, lower demand).
Commodities:
Gold
Current Trend: Prices rose as the dollar and Treasury yields weakened.
Santa Rally Potential: Historically, gold has gained in December for the past seven years.
Technical Outlook:
Stabilized after correcting from October's record high.
Ranging between $2,600–$2,700 after breaking a major uptrend line.
RSI indicates weakening momentum, suggesting short-term bearishness.
Crude Oil
Price Movement: Fell to $72.13/barrel, down 3% for the week due to eased supply concerns from Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire.
OPEC+ Impact: Delay in meeting creates market uncertainty as traders anticipate decisions on production cuts.
Future Outlook:
Global inventories likely to rise in Q2 2025 due to increased supply from the U.S., Canada, and South America.
Weak demand growth expected to temper price recovery.
Forex:
Japanese Yen:
Surged to a 6-week high vs. the dollar, driven by Tokyo's 2.2% YoY CPI rise in November, surpassing expectations.
Dollar fell to 149.62 yen, marking a 3.21% weekly loss, largest since July.
Dollar Index:
Declined, but still on track for a 1.59% rise in November, driven by expectations of pro-growth U.S. policies.
Euro:
Gained 1.5% for the week but down 2.8% for November.
Mixed inflation data from France and Germany; ECB divided on further rate cuts.
Crypto:
Ethereum (ETH):
Currently below resistance levels ($3,800 to $4,000).
If it breaks above $4,000 and stays above, a new bullish trend could push it towards its all-time high of $4,950 or higher.
Bitcoin (BTC):
Fell 1.1% last week but is attempting to recover its record high of $99,830.
On track for a 39% increase this month, the best performance since February.
Currently ranges between $90,000 (support) and $100,000 (resistance).
RSI shows weakness, indicating potential range-bound movement.
A break above $100,000 could lead to further increases, while a fall below $90,000 may bring the price down to $85,000.
READ FULL MARKET MORNINGThis Week’s Outlook:
Economic Events:
November Jobs Report:
Economy expected to add 183K jobs, a significant rebound from October's 12K.
Unemployment rate forecast to stay at 4.1%.
Wage growth projected to slow to 0.3% from 0.4%.
ISM PMIs:
Services sector may show slight slowdown.
Manufacturing downturn likely to ease.
JOLTS Report:
Job openings expected to rise to 7.49M from 7.443M.
Other Key Data:
Michigan consumer sentiment index expected to rise in December.
Factory orders likely to increase 0.4% in October.
Additional reports include ADP (NASDAQ:ADP) employment, Challenger job cuts, consumer credit, exports/imports, and construction spending.
Fed Officials:
Market will monitor speeches from several Fed officials, including Chair Powell at the New York Times (NYSE:NYT) DealBook Summit.
Earning Events:
On the corporate side, major companies like SalesForce (CRM), AutoZone (NYSE:AZO), Synopsys (NASDAQ:SNPS) and Kroger (NYSE:KR) will release their quarterly results.
For more info check out Meta (NASDAQ:META) Trading Club's Market Mornings Newsletter.