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CAD
The Canadian dollar performed steadily last week, tracking commodity prices and broader risk appetite. Following Canada’s CPI report on 16 April, there were no major domestic releases last week, and CAD remained range-bound. CAD movements remain more tied to oil prices and general risk appetite.
This week’s highlight will be Canada’s February GDP, scheduled for Tuesday, 30 April. Weak growth could tilt expectations further toward Bank of Canada cuts. External drivers, particularly US data, commodity markets, and any escalation in global trade tensions, will also influence CAD.
USD
The US dollar softened slightly last week, reacting to a more cautious risk environment. Focus now shifts to a heavy calendar of top-tier data. The crucial Q1 GDP release is due this Wednesday, 30 April, followed by March Core PCE inflation on Thursday, 1 May and non-farm payrolls on Friday, 2 May. Markets are bracing for a softer growth figure but still-sticky inflation, complicating the Fed’s task.
The FOMC meeting is scheduled for 7 May, with no rate move expected but guidance under close scrutiny after recent mixed data. Meanwhile, renewed talk of tariffs — particularly on Chinese goods and European imports — is starting to weigh on risk sentiment and could potentially offer some support to the dollar as a safe-haven bid. This week’s GDP and Core PCE prints will be decisive for near-term USD direction. Trade tensions are creeping back into the narrative and could amplify market volatility, especially if tariff announcements escalate.
EUR
The euro traded sideways last week as markets waited for new catalysts. The ECB remains on track for a potential June rate cut, but this week’s incoming data could either confirm or challenge expectations. Key prints include Eurozone Q1 GDP and April flash CPI, both due Tuesday, 30 April.
There is also a risk that trade tensions between the US and Europe resurface, with potential new tariffs on European goods back under discussion — a theme that could weigh on the euro if rhetoric hardens. Focus will be on whether core inflation continues to decline, supporting the case for early summer cuts. German retail sales and unemployment data (also 30 April) could influence broader EUR sentiment.
GBP
Sterling remained relatively stable last week with few major domestic data releases to drive direction. UK CPI data was released the week before last (16 April), showing further progress on disinflation but not enough to prevent market expectations of a near-term rate cut. Markets are pricing a 100% probability of a 25bp Bank of England rate cut at the MPC meeting on 8 May.
This week, GBP will mainly trade off external factors, particularly key US data. Any rise in global trade tensions — notably around US tariff threats — could add safe-haven flows into USD at the expense of GBP.
This content was originally published by our partners at Monex Canada.