Last week's market and economic data key points:
- U.S.PMIrose, signaling strongest private sector
- Long-runinflation expectationclimbed, signaling growing uncertainty
- Tariffsthreaten 2025 outlook forU.S. stocks
- Dow Jonescloses at record high
- Teslasoars as trump signals easing self-driving car regulations
- Nvidiasmashes EPS and revenue expectations
- Targetplummets after missing eps estimates
- Walmart (NYSE:WMT),Copart, andDEdeliver strong earnings and revenue
- Bitcoinhit almost 100K
- Commoditiessurge as Russia Ukraine tensions escalate
Last Week’s Economic Reports:
- U.S. building permits down 0.6% in October, possibly leading to higher housing prices.
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Indexdrops to -5.50, indicating contraction.
- Existing home salesfall 1% in September; highest inventory since 2020.
- S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) US Composite PMI rises to 55.3, showing strong private sector growth.
- Manufacturing PMIup slightly to 48.8; Services PMI jumps to 57.
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment revised to 71.8; long-term inflation expectations rise to 3.2%.
Last Week’s Earnings Reports:
- Walmart (WMT): Q3 2024 revenue up 5.5% to $169.6B. Adjusted EPS of $0.58 beat forecasts. Strong growth in U.S. sales and eCommerce. Raised full-year guidance.
- Target (NYSE:TGT): Q3 revenue of $25.7B, up 1.1%, missed estimates. EPS of $1.85, below $2.30 forecast. Beauty sales up 6%, strong digital growth. Bearish trend with support between $90-$100.
- Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA): Q3 2025 revenue of $35.1B, up 94% YoY. Data center revenue up 112%. Q4 forecast at $37.5B. Bullish trend but possible decline toward $130 if momentum weakens.
Indices Performance:
- S&P 500, Nasdaq up 1.7%; Dow rose 2.1%, hitting an all-time high.
- S&P 500 up 31% YoY, closing near 5,969.34.
- Trump policiesmay boost markets, but tariffs are a concern.
- S&P 500 near 6100 Fibonacci level, RSI weakening.
- Price may fall to 5450 or 5100 if below 6100.
Stock Market Sector Performance:
- Basic Materials, Consumer Defensive, and Energy: +3.27% each
- Industrials: +3.11%
- Utilities: +2.77%
- Real Estate, Technology: +2.43% each
- Healthcare: +2.04%
- Financials: +1.75%
- Consumer Cyclical: +1.62%
- Communication Services: +0.16%
Overall, most sectors posted gains, reflecting positive market sentiment and investor confidence.
Commodities:
- Gold: Set for a 5%+ weekly gain due to increased demand amid Russia-Ukraine tensions, highlighting its role as a safe-haven asset.
- Crude Oil: Up 5%+ weekly amid escalating geopolitical tensions and concerns over supply disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Iran's nuclear activities.
Forex:
- US Dollar:Strengthened to a new yearly high, weakening the Euro and British Pound.
- Euro:Hit its lowest level since 2022, driven by strong US data and declining euro-area business activity.
- Japanese Yen: Gained amid geopolitical fears.
- US Treasuries: Yields moved away from recent highs.
Crypto:
Cardano (ADA):Surged 200%+ in 3 weeks, hitting a 2.5-year high.
- Weekly Gain: Over 38%, driven by increased demand and positive sentiment.
- Bullish Trend: Break above $0.80 initiates bullish momentum.
- Resistance Zones: Key levels at $1.25 and $1.60.
- Target: Price can rise as long as it stays above $0.80.
Bitcoin Spot ETFs: Strong inflows, with BlackRock’s IBIT ETF seeing a $513 million single-day inflow. Total (EPA:TTEF) net asset value reaches $107.488 billion.- Major Bitcoin Holders:MicroStrategy and Metaplanet expanding BTC reserves amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
- Bitcoin Uptrend:RSI shows momentum weakness; likely to continue upward with shallow price/time corrections.
- Resistance Level: $100,000 psychological barrier; possible correction around this level.
- Target:Fibonacci levels suggest $107,000 is achievable if support holds.
This Week’s Outlook:
Economic Events:
- FOMC Minutes: Released Tuesday, offering insights into the Fed’s policy discussions.
- PCE Report (October): Expected 0.2% increase, with core PCE steady at 0.3%.
- Personal Income & Spending:Income up 0.3%, spending up 0.4%, slightly lower than September.
- Q3 GDP Second Estimate:Expected to confirm 2.8% growth.
- Durable Goods Orders: Expected rise of 0.1%.
- Other Releases:Corporate profits, wholesale inventories, Fed indexes, house prices, consumer confidence, and home sales.
Earning Events:
On the corporate side, major companies like Dell, HP, Zoom, Best buy, CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD), and Kroger (NYSE:KR) will release their quarterly results.