On Wednesday, Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) updated its assessment of Okta, Inc (NASDAQ:OKTA), a leading identity management company, by increasing the price target to $100 from the previous $92. The firm retained a Neutral rating on the stock. According to InvestingPro analysis, Okta appears undervalued at its current price of $81.71, with impressive gross profit margins of 75.82%.
This adjustment follows Okta's reported annual recurring revenue growth of 13% year-over-year, surpassing management's conservative estimate of around 9%. Okta's growth was notably driven by robust demand from large enterprises and a particularly strong performance in the U.S. Federal sector during the quarter. InvestingPro data shows even stronger overall revenue growth at 18.74% over the last twelve months, with analysts expecting continued profitability improvement this year.
Okta also provided guidance for the fourth quarter that exceeded consensus expectations, indicating continued revenue growth. However, the company's preliminary revenue growth guidance for fiscal year 2026 is set at just 7% year-over-year, which falls short of the Street's forecast of approximately 10%. Management expects non-GAAP operating margins (OMs) and free cash flow (FCF) margins to align with current predictions.
Despite the lower than anticipated revenue growth outlook for FY26, Mizuho acknowledged Okta's position as a dominant player in the identity management market, also highlighting that the company's valuation appears reasonable. Nevertheless, challenges persist for Okta, including heightened competition from Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), inconsistent execution over the past years, and lingering doubts about the company's ability to achieve a lasting turnaround.
For deeper insights into Okta's competitive position and financial health (currently rated as GOOD by InvestingPro), subscribers can access the comprehensive Pro Research Report, which includes detailed analysis of the company's market position and growth potential.
In summary, while the revised revenue guidance for FY26 may have been a letdown, Mizuho's revised price target reflects a recognition of Okta's market leadership and current valuation, balanced against the competitive and operational hurdles it faces.
In other recent news, Okta, Inc. witnessed a series of analyst upgrades and downgrades following its third-quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings release.
Okta's earnings showcased a 14% increase in revenue and a 13% rise in calculated remaining performance obligations (cRPO) growth. TD (TSX:TD) Cowen maintained a Hold rating on Okta, with a steady price target of $110.00, while BTIG analyst Gray Powell increased the price target for Okta to $110.00, reiterating a Buy rating on the stock.
Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) also maintained its Buy rating on Okta with a steady price target of $107.00. DA Davidson, on the other hand, raised Okta's price target to $90.00 while maintaining a Neutral rating. Evercore ISI maintained an Outperform rating and a $122.00 price target.
These developments follow Okta's recent announcement of strong financial performance, including robust profitability and cash flow, and raised guidance reflecting its financial strength.
The company's future looks promising, with anticipated product introductions and enhancements expected to accelerate growth. However, some analysts, like DA Davidson, anticipate a deceleration in growth, potentially settling into the high-single-digit range. Despite these mixed views, Okta's valuation remains attractive, with a market capitalization of $13.88 billion and strong liquidity metrics showing current assets exceeding short-term obligations.
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