On Friday, UBS initiated coverage on Loblaw Companies (TSX:L:CN) (OTC: LBLCF) with a Buy rating and set a price target of C$225.00. The firm highlighted Loblaw's significant market share in the Canadian food and drug retail sector, which stands at approximately 27%, notably ahead of its closest competitor, Empire/Sobeys, which has around a 14% share. This market dominance is seen as a scale advantage for Loblaw as it aims to enhance its position in the market.
The investment firm pointed out Loblaw's extensive consumer data through its PC Optimum loyalty program, which boasts around 16 million members, aligning closely with the total number of Canadian households. Loblaw's Shoppers Drug Mart network is expanding and contributing to margin growth with its strong presence in both mass and prestige cosmetics.
Additionally, the company's large network of over 1,350 drug stores is expected to benefit from increased prescribing powers being granted to pharmacists. UBS also noted Loblaw's leading position in the Canadian hard discount grocery segment, which accounts for roughly 50% of its food retail revenue and is expanding, with no competition from discount chains like Aldi and Lidl in the country.
UBS forecasts that Loblaw is on a path to achieve, or potentially surpass, 2-3% same-store sales growth, 4-6% EBIT growth, and 8-10% adjusted EPS growth over time. The firm anticipates that Loblaw's consistent outperformance will contribute to earnings per share of $10.95 by the fiscal year 2026, compared to the consensus estimate of $10.41.
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