Oil dips as dollar halts slide, short-term demand outlook weakens

Published 2018-01-25, 08:14 p/m
© Reuters.  Oil dips as dollar halts slide, short-term demand outlook weakens
DX
-
LCO
-
CL
-
USDIDX
-

* Dollar halts slide after falling to 3-year low

* Demand outlook seasonally weakens at end of winter

* Rising U.S. output undermines OPEC/Russia supply cuts

By Henning Gloystein

SINGAPORE, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Friday as the U.S. dollar halted its slide and as crude market fundamentals are expected to weaken in the near future.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 were at $70.11 per barrel at 0103 GMT, down 31 cents, or 0.4 percent, from their last close. Brent the previous day hit its highest since December, 2014 at $71.28.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were at $65.24 a barrel, down 27 cents, or 0.4 percent from their last close. WTI also marked a December-2014 high the day before, at $66.66.

Traders said prices received some support from a firmer dollar. The U.S. currency halted earlier slides on Thursday .DXY after U.S. President Donald Trump said he wanted a "strong dollar". Earlier that day, the greenback had tumbled when U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he welcomed a weaker dollar. often shift money between the dollar and crude futures, depending on their specific outlook. As oil is traded in dollars, swings in the greenback can also impact oil demand as it affects the price of fuel purchases for countries using other currencies domestically.

Beyond currency markets, analysts said the short-term outlook for oil was slightly weaker.

"Supply remains high ... for crude and we expect it to increase further. Our expectations are anchored at the potential improvement in productivity of U.S. oil rigs, increase in the nominal number of rigs in operation and a strong chance for other non-OPEC producers to ramp up exports," said Georgi Slavov, head of research at commodities brokerage Marex Spectron.

U.S. oil production C-OUT-T-EIA is edging ever more closely towards 10 million barrels per day (bpd), hitting 9.88 million bpd last week.

Output has grown by more than 17 percent since mid-2016, and is now on par with that of top exporter Saudi Arabia.

Only Russia produces more, averaging 10.98 million bpd in 2017. U.S. output is threatening to undermine efforts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia to withhold supplies to tighten the market and prop up prices.

This supply restraint, coupled with healthy demand growth, has contributed to a near 60-percent rise in oil prices since mid-2017 as excess crude inventories around the world have gradually been drawn down. the generally healthy outlook for oil demand, Slavov said there were short-term headwinds due to the upcoming end of the peak demand winter season in the northern hemisphere.

Many petroleum refiners shut down after winter for maintenance, resulting in lower orders for crude, their most important feedstock.

"Demand is starting to weaken as ... refining capacity was taken out of the market," Slavov said.

<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ GRAPHIC: Brent vs Dollar index

http://reut.rs/2E8nXyP Oil market chartbook

http://tmsnrt.rs/2E9y6v5 COLUMN-OPEC's output restraint tightens oil inventories and spreads

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.