Cyber Monday Deal: Up to 60% off InvestingProCLAIM SALE

Oil edges up as analysts say market could be closer to balance than expected

Published 2016-10-17, 08:36 p/m
© Reuters.  Oil edges up as analysts say market could be closer to balance than expected
LCO
-
CL
-
DXY
-

* Fuel stocks have not built as much as expected ahead of winter

* Inaccurate output data makes it hard to gauge market -analysts

By Henning Gloystein

SINGAPORE, Oct 18 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose early on Tuesday as some analysts said markets might not be quite as oversupplied as suggested by many, with global inventories rising less than expected ahead of the high-demand winter heating season in the northern hemisphere.

A drop in the dollar away from seven-month highs the previous day .DXY also supported crude, as a lower greenback makes fuel purchases cheaper for countries using other currencies domestically.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 were trading at $51.77 per barrel at 0035 GMT, up 25 cents from their previous close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 was up 27 cents at $50.21 a barrel.

Traders said prices were receiving support from the notion that oil markets, which have been dogged by oversupply for two years, may be closer to balance than previously anticipated.

Beyond estimating production and consumption, one way to gauge the supply and demand balance is to analyse fuel inventory changes.

"Global oil inventories (industry and government) increased by 17 million barrels to 5.618 billion barrels in 3Q16. This is the smallest build since 4Q14, confirming that inventory builds are slowing as the market comes back into balance," Bernstein Energy said in a note on Tuesday.

"Global Inventory builds estimated in 3Q16 imply 200 million barrels per day oversupply, which is smaller than IEA estimates of 300 million barrels per day," Bernstein added.

Bernstein said that recent inventory declines "suggest that oil markets may be closer to re-balancing than some expect," but added that going forward "much depends on how much OPEC is prepared to cut at the upcoming meetings in Vienna at the end of November".

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will meet on Nov. 30 to discuss a planned output cut of around 1 million barrels per day away from its record 33.6 million bpd production in September PRODN-TOTAL .

The cartel hopes that major non-OPEC producer Russia will cooperate.

Some analysts said it was difficult to gauge how deep a production cut would need to be in order to bring production into balance with consumption, especially as available data was unreliable.

"Many questions remain about what exactly is required to balance the market, and Iraq's insistence that the secondary source data used by OPEC to estimate its own production is wrong is both an additional problem for the organisation to navigate, but also highlights the bigger issue of data inadequacies in the oil market," Citi bank said.

<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ GRAPHIC-Global oil supply and demand balance

http://tmsnrt.rs/2dKkcHe

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.