July 8 (Reuters) - U.S. drillers this week added oil rigs
for a fifth week in six, according to a closely followed report
Friday, prompting analysts to predict the rig count has bottomed
and production will start to edge up early next year.
Drillers added 10 oil rigs in the week to July 8, bringing
the total rig count up to 351, compared with 645 a year ago,
energy services firm Baker Hughes Inc BHI.N said.
RIG-OL-USA-BHI
Before this week, drillers added oil rigs in only five out
of 26 weeks this year, cutting on average eight rigs per week
for a total of 195. Last year, they cut 18 rigs per week on
average for a total of 963, the biggest decline since at least
1988.
After slumping from 1,609 rigs in October 2014 amid the
biggest oil price rout in a generation, the rig count started to
inch up in June as U.S. crude futures hovered around the key
$50-a-barrel level that analysts said would trigger a return to
the well pad.
U.S. crude futures CLc1 this week however were on track to
fall nearly 8 percent to around $45 a barrel in their worst
weekly decline in five-months on global economic worries. O/R
But looking forward, prices were expected to rise with
futures for the balance of the year CLBALst trading below $47
and calendar 2017 CLYstc1 fetching $50.
"We believe the U.S. oil rig count bottomed in late May at
around 316 rigs, and expect U.S. oil production to bottom in
February 2017 at about 7.735 million barrels per day," analysts
at Swiss bank UBS said this week in a report.
UBS explained the nine-month lag between the rig count
bottom and production hitting bottom on the time it takes to put
a new well into service after a company decides to drill it -
about three months to secure a rig and six to complete the well.
Analysts at Simmons & Co, energy specialists at U.S.
investment bank Piper Jaffray, forecast the total oil and
natural rig count would average 483 in 2016, 667 in 2017 and 945
in 2018, versus 978 in 2015.
The total oil and gas rig count bottomed at 404 in mid May,
the lowest level since at least 1940, and increased by nine to
440 in the week ended July 8, according to Baker Hughes data.
Analysts at U.S. financial services firm Cowen & Co said
producers added most rigs in the Permian basin in West Texas
since the rig count bottomed, noting Concho Resources Inc
CXO.N and Energen Corp EGN.N were the most active drillers.
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Graphic on U.S. rig counts http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
U.S. natural gas rig count versus futures price http://link.reuters.com/nuz86t
Thomson Reuters Analytics natural gas data reuters://screen/verb=Open/URL=cpurl://pointcarbon.cp./trading/gmtna/
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