* Goldman cuts 2015, 2016 outlook; Commerzbank (XETRA:CBKG) also pares
forecast
* Oil prices will be "lower for even longer", Goldman says
* IEA counters bearish forecast with demand growth
expectations
(New throughout, with settlement prices for crude)
By Barani Krishnan
NEW YORK, Sept 11 (Reuters) - Crude futures fell 2 percent
or more on Friday after influential Wall Street trader Goldman
Sachs cut its outlook on oil, but positive sentiment from
rebounding U.S. stock prices and less drilling for oil helped
the market pare losses.
Goldman lowered its 2016 forecast for U.S. crude to $45 a
barrel from $57 previously, and Brent to $49.50 from $62, citing
oversupply and concerns over China's economy. ID:nL4N11H2UK
Germany's Commerzbank also cut its oil outlook, joining a
long list of banks that have downgraded crude price projections
on supply glut concerns. ID:nL4N11H3V1
"The oil market is even more oversupplied than we had
expected and we forecast this surplus to persist in 2016,"
Goldman said in a note entitled "Lower for even longer."
Citing "operational stress" as a growing downside risk, the
Wall Street firm said crude could even fall to near $20 a
barrel. "While not our base case, the potential for oil prices
to fall to such levels ... is becoming greater as
storage continues to fill."
Global benchmarks for crude oil fell more than 3 percent
initially on the Goldman announcement, then pared losses as
stocks on Wall Street rebounded .SPX and news of a lower U.S.
oil rig count emerged. But toward the close, they headed lower
again before finishing off their lows.
U.S. crude CLc1 settled down $1.29, or 2.8 percent, at
$44.63 a barrel.
Brent LCOc1 , the global benchmark for oil, closed down 75
cents, or 1.5 percent, at $48.59.
U.S. stocks were off their lows in afternoon trade ahead of
a Federal Reserve meeting next week that could decide on an
interest rate hike. Equity markets have provided direction to
oil since the end of August as investors grappled with mixed
fundamentals for crude. .N
Oil services firm Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI) said U.S. drillers idled 10
rigs this week, cutting activity for a second week in a row in
sign that price declines were discouraging producers. RIG/U
Crude prices have more than halved over the past year, with
Brent tumbling from nearly $120 a barrel in the middle of 2014
to below $43 last month. Prices collapsed as a global glut of
crude pushed commercial and government inventories to all-time
highs.
Analysts say the market is rebalancing, but high stocks will
keep weighing on prices into next year.
Investors shrugged off a report from the Paris-based
International Energy Agency, which suggested that OPEC was
successfully defending market share by keeping output steady in
the face of lower prices. ID:nL9N0O802D