* Climbing OPEC output, Russian exports outweigh weak dollar
* Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) warns of emerging Asian gasoline glut
* Falling U.S. production seen as price supportive
(Adds Russian exports, comment, updates prices)
By Henning Gloystein and Osamu Tsukimori
SINGAPORE/KITAKYUSHU, May 2 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on
Monday as rising production in the Middle East outweighed a
decline in the U.S. output and a sliding dollar, while Morgan
Stanley warned that an emerging gasoline glut could also spill
back into crude markets.
Brent LCOc1 was trading at $46.90 per barrel at 0643 GMT,
down 47 cents, or 1 percent, from its last settlement. U.S.
crude CLc1 was down 33 cents at $45.59 a barrel.
Liquidity was low due to May Day holiday in many countries.
Analysts said rising output from the Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was outweighing a decline
in the U.S. output and a sliding dollar, which makes it cheaper
for countries using other currencies to import dollar-traded
fuel.
"The weaker dollar failed to excite investors in the crude
oil markets," ANZ bank said, citing a rise in OPEC-output as the
main downward driver for prices.
The dollar has fallen over 6 percent this year against a
basket of other leading currencies .DXY , but traders said the
weak greenback and falling U.S. output had been priced into the
market during April's price rally.
OPEC supplies rose to 32.64 million barrels per day (bpd) in
April, from 32.47 million bpd in March, according to a Reuters
survey. That almost matches January's 32.65 million bpd, when
Indonesia's return to OPEC boosted production to the highest,
since at least 1997.
Russia, the biggest exporter outside OPEC, increased crude
for seaborne exports to 3.117 million bpd in April, from 2.903
million bpd in March.
Morgan Stanley said there is also a threat to crude prices
coming from an emerging gasoline glut.
"Asia is the hub of a growing gasoline challenge A growing
product glut could lead to (refinery) run cuts later this year.
We see a growing risk to refinery demand for crude oil," the
U.S. bank said.
Despite this, the chief of the International Energy Agency
(IEA) said oil prices may have bottomed out, providing the
health of the global economy does not pose a concern.
"In a normal economic environment, we will see the price
direction is rather upwards than downwards," IEA Executive
Director Fatih Birol said on Sunday during a G7 meeting of
energy ministers in Japan.
Non-OPEC output is set to fall by more than 700,000 bpd this
year, the biggest decline in around 20 years, he said.
With global oil demand seen growing by 1.2 million bpd this
year, the draw in global stockpiles will start soon, helping
push up prices, he said.
U.S. energy secretary Ernest Moniz said on Monday, at the
same event in Japan, that U.S. oil production would likely fall
600,000 bpd this year, compared with 2015 when output peaked
around 9.6 million bpd.
GRAPHIC on oil price forecasts http://tmsnrt.rs/1VXraWO
CHART-U.S. crude oil production http://tmsnrt.rs/244AKvS
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