On Thursday, Barclays (LON:BARC) made a notable adjustment to its stance on CVS Health Corporation (NYSE: NYSE:CVS), upgrading the stock from Equalweight to Overweight. Alongside the rating change, the firm significantly increased its price target from $63.00 to $82.00.
The revision follows a period of reassessment of the company's prospects, particularly in light of its Medicare margin improvement potential and cost-saving initiatives. The firm's analyst pointed out that the previous concerns regarding the downside risk from the 2024 Medicare benefits were mostly realized after a reduction in earnings per share by nearly $2.00, a 23% cut, during the year's first half.
The analyst highlighted four key drivers for the improved outlook on CVS Health: higher confidence in achieving the upper end of the 2025 Medicare margin improvement target, which is between 100 to 200 basis points; the implementation of $2 billion in cost-saving measures; market share gains in the Patient Care Workforce (PCW) retail segment which could mitigate broader economic pressures; and the potential benefits from the company's CostVantage program.
To arrive at the new price target of $82.00, which indicates a 24% increase from the previous target, Barclays applied a target multiple of 9.5 times to the estimated earnings per share of $8.77 for 2026. This multiple is a one-turn discount to the firm's sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) framework. The more optimistic view on CVS Health reflects an anticipation of a compelling margin recovery opportunity for the healthcare company.
In other recent news, CVS Health, UnitedHealth Group (NYSE:UNH), and Cigna (NYSE:CI) have requested the recusal of U.S. Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan and commissioners Rebecca Kelly Slaughter and Alvaro Bedoya from a lawsuit alleging wrongful inflation of insulin prices. The companies argue that the commissioners have shown bias against pharmacy benefit managers, potentially compromising the fairness of the proceedings.
In the realm of financial assessments, TD (TSX:TD) Cowen has upgraded CVS Health from Hold to Buy, with a revised price target of $85.00 from the previous $59.00. The firm predicts a 15% year-over-year increase in earnings per share for CVS Health in 2025, reaching an estimated $7.54.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) maintains its Overweight rating on CVS Health, despite uncertainties surrounding the company's future structure. Speculations about CVS Health separating its retail and insurance businesses have circulated, but no official statement has been issued by the company.
In a similar vein, Mizuho has maintained its Outperform rating on CVS Health shares, expressing skepticism about a potential split of its retail pharmacy and insurance units. This stance comes amidst recent developments including the layoff of approximately 2,900 employees as a cost-saving measure and the introduction of new Medicare Advantage plans with a $0 monthly premium on prescription drugs.
Lastly, CVS Health has announced the layoff of approximately 2,900 employees as part of its ongoing strategy to reduce expenses and improve efficiency, primarily affecting corporate positions. These layoffs are part of the company's multi-year goal of saving $2 billion and are in line with the implementation of artificial intelligence and automation technologies to optimize business processes.
InvestingPro Insights
Recent data from InvestingPro adds weight to Barclays' optimistic outlook on CVS Health. The company's P/E ratio of 11.61 suggests it may be undervalued relative to its earnings, aligning with Barclays' view of a potential upside. This is further supported by CVS's price-to-book ratio of 1.11, indicating the stock might be trading at a reasonable valuation compared to its book value.
InvestingPro Tips highlight that CVS has maintained dividend payments for 54 consecutive years and has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years. This demonstrates the company's financial stability and commitment to shareholder returns, which could be attractive to investors looking for reliable income streams.
The company's revenue growth of 7.03% over the last twelve months, as reported by InvestingPro, suggests that CVS is continuing to expand its business, potentially supporting Barclays' expectations of market share gains in the retail segment.
For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 11 additional tips for CVS Health, providing a deeper understanding of the company's financial health and market position.
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