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US retail sales rise by faster than anticipated pace in September

Published 2024-10-17, 08:40 a/m
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Investing.com -- US retail sales grew at a hotter-than-anticipated pace in September, in a sign of strength in the American consumer that could factor into how the Federal Reserve approaches interest rate decisions at its final two meetings this year.

On a monthly basis, retail sales in the world's largest economy rose by 0.4%, accelerating from an unrevised uptick of 0.1% in August, according to data from the Commerce Department on Thursday. Economists had seen the reading at 0.3%.

In August, the figure, which includes mostly goods and is not adjusted for inflation, unexpectedly rose, while the July number was also revised higher.

Robust spending on items like groceries and clothing helped offset weakness in expenditures on higher-priced goods such as furniture and electronics last month, the numbers showed.

However, analysts at Capital Economics noted that some disruption from the devastating Hurricane Helene in September was "clear" in the weekly advance retail trade data from the Chicago Fed released on Wednesday.

"[T]imelier data show a big drop in retail sales in the last week of September as Hurricane Helene made landfall, and Milton added to the disruption two weeks later, so prospects for October and the fourth quarter are looking softer," the analysts said in a note to clients.

The figures come as Fed policymakers mull over their next monetary policy decision in November. The central bank slashed borrowing costs by an supersized 50 basis points at its last gathering in September, with officials arguing it was necessary to support the US labor market during a time of waning inflationary pressures.

Separate figures from the Labor Department on Thursday showed that first-time claims for unemployment benefits dipped as projected to 241,000 in the week ended on Oct. 12. The prior week's number was upwardly revised slightly to 260,000.

Meanwhile, the four-week moving average, which attempts to account for volatility in the weekly release, moved up by 4,750 to 236,250.

"The hot retail sales number for Sept[ember] fits with the upside pattern from last month [...] and will push yields higher (while causing investors to further question the pace of [rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee] easing)," analysts at Vital Knowledge wrote in a note.

They added that several key figures are still to come before the Fed's next decision in November, including third-quarter gross domestic product numbers, the Fed's preferred inflation reading, and the October jobs report.

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