Staying attuned to your local real estate market is key when buying a home. Keeping an eye on inventory? Very mindful. Very demure. Knowing that more choices mean better chances to negotiate is even smarter—it helps keep prices in check. With the fall market on the horizon and record-breaking inventory expected, it’s more important than ever to stay ahead and navigate the shifting landscape.
This content was originally published by Zoocasa. View original content and infographics here.
As we await another announcement of a potential BoC cut, Zoocasa analyzed annual listings, inventory rates, and price changes across the country to assess whether autumn could be the best time for buyers in 2024.
Summer Sees Falling Prices in Canada’s Key Markets
The most recent figures show that British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec, Alberta, and Saskatchewan are among Canada's five provinces with the highest property transaction volumes. Among these, British Columbia and Ontario, two of Canada's most expensive real estate markets, experienced notable declines in home prices.
The average home price in British Columbia decreased by 0.49%, falling from $967,298 in July 2023 to $962,537 in July 2024. Ontario saw a more pronounced drop of 1.70%, with prices declining from $852,198 in July 2023 to $837,685 in July 2024.
On the other hand, Quebec, Alberta, and Saskatchewan all demonstrated resilience with year-over-year price increases. Alberta led with an 8.25% rise, followed by Saskatchewan with a 6.79% increase, and Quebec with a 6.32% gain, indicating a stable and growing market. However, these prices are much more affordable for the average first-time homebuyer compared to what it would take to save for a down payment in more expensive Ontario and British Columbia markets.
These provinces also experienced significant growth in new property listings. Ontario had a substantial 15% year-over-year increase in new listings, growing from 32,345 in July 2023 to 37,198 in July 2024. A particularly sharp rise of 41.8% in April 2024 indicates that sellers hoped that listing their property in time for the spring market would result in a sale, but most listings stayed in the market.
More Listings, More Opportunities for Buyers
Toronto, Ontario's most active market, has seen an 18.5% increase in listings, with 16,296 new listings in July 2024 compared to 13,755 in July 2023, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board. Additionally, the average listing days on the market rose by 56.5%, from 17 days in July 2023 to 24 days in July 2024, marking a 41.2% increase.
Likewise, the GTA city of Mississauga had 2,121 active residential listings on the market at the end of July, a substantial gain of 54.1% from the end of July 2023. As explained by Cornerstone Real Estate, the city's local real estate board, “active listings haven't been this high in July in a decade.”
Outside of the GTA, Ottawa's active listings surged 50.6% above the five-year average, with a 37% increase from last year to 3,480 units. New residential listings also rose 17.1% year over year, reaching 2,231—6.3% above the five-year average, though still 2.3% below the 10-year average.
British Columbia saw a 12.8% year-over-year increase in new listings, rising from 13,653 in July 2023 to 15,394 in July 2024. This surge in listings could indicate a cooling market, with more properties available but fewer eager buyers. The province also recorded a 51% increase in listings in April 2024 compared to April 2023, which shows that the typically active spring market slowed down significantly this past year.
Vancouver, the province's largest city, recorded 5,597 new listings for detached, attached, and apartment properties in July 2024, a 20.4% increase from the 4,649 listings in July 2023. This figure is also 12.7% higher than the 10-year seasonal average of 4,968 listings. This is especially noteworthy for Vancouver, a city that has consistently struggled with low inventory for years.
The total number of properties listed for sale in Metro (TSX:MRU) Vancouver reached 14,326, marking a 39.1% increase from July 2023’s 10,301 listings. Like Mississauga, this record-breaking inventory is also the highest in over a decade, standing 21.5% above the 10-year seasonal average of 11,788 listings.
Quebec experienced a 13.6% year-over-year increase in new listings, climbing from 8,887 in July 2023 to 10,096 in July 2024. The consistent rise, including a notable 32.1% jump in April 2024, may suggest that sellers are attempting to capitalize on previous demand.
How Prices and Listings are Changing in Canada’s Most Affordable Housing Markets
In Alberta, new listings increased by 10.3% year-over-year. Despite some fluctuations this year so far, including slight declines in June and March, the overall increase in listings might point to a more cautious market, where properties stay on the market longer as buyer activity slows.
According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, with 2,380 sales and 3,604 new listings in July, the sales-to-new listings ratio dropped to 66%, resulting in a significant increase in inventory.
The board reports that inventory increased to 4,158 units, still 33% below typical levels, but this is the first time in nearly two years that inventory has exceeded 4,000 units.
While most supply growth occurred in homes priced above $600,000, this increase has helped alleviate the extreme sellers' market conditions experienced during the spring. However, the Calgary Real Estate Board highlights a higher demand for homes under this amount.
Meanwhile, Edmonton experienced a notable shift in inventory levels. The Greater Edmonton Area (GEA) real estate market recorded 2,941 residential unit sales in July 2024, a 3.5% increase from June 2024 and a substantial 27.1% rise compared to July 2023. This surge in sales reflects the strong demand in the market.
New residential listings in the GEA reached 3,729 in July 2024, up 2.9% from last month and 13.2% higher than last July. This increase indicates that more homeowners are choosing to enter the market, possibly in response to favorable market conditions.
Despite the increase in sales and new listings, overall inventory in the GEA decreased by 1.4% from June, bringing it 15.1% lower than the levels seen in July 2023. This decline in inventory suggests that properties are being absorbed by the market quickly, contributing to the ongoing competitive environment. The reduced available inventory, especially compared to the previous year, highlights the persistent demand and the relative scarcity of homes on the market, even with the recent increase in new listings.
Saskatchewan recorded a modest 2.1% year-over-year increase in new listings, rising from 2,394 to 2,444 in July 2024. The slight increase, along with declines in other months, may reflect a market beginning to slow, with fewer transactions occurring.
In contrast, Manitoba saw a slight decline, with new listings decreasing by 1.5% year-over-year in July 2024. The declines in June and May also suggest a cooling market, with less seller activity driven by softer buyer demand.
Low Home Prices are a Top Priority for Homebuyers
Following the initial BoC interest rate reduction, Zoocasa surveyed 1,100 readers to assess their real estate intentions, preferences, and concerns.
The spring homeownership survey findings revealed that high home prices continue to pose a significant challenge for potential buyers. 58% of respondents identified the purchase price as the most crucial factor in determining a home's affordability. While interest rates play a role in decision-making, they are not the sole influence for all homebuyers.
Though 31.6% of respondents indicated that they are waiting for substantial rate cuts before entering the market this year, and 15.1% are holding out for one more rate cut, a sizable portion of buyers are not significantly affected by interest rates. Instead, steep home prices have been the primary obstacle for prospective homebuyers, with 58% of survey respondents pointing to the purchase price as the most critical factor in determining a home's affordability.
With prices now dropping and price concerns taking centre stage, the increased supply in most major markets makes this fall an ideal time for buyers to step off the sidelines and re-enter the buying and selling process. .