By Fergal Smith
TORONTO (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar is set to give back some of its recent gains over coming months but could make another move higher in 2025 if central bank easing cycles revive the global economy, spurring demand for commodities, a Reuters poll found.
Since hitting a near two-year low at 1.3946 per U.S. dollar, or 71.71 U.S. cents, in August the loonie has rallied 3.3%, helped by short covering and broad-based declines for the greenback.
The median forecast of more than 30 foreign exchange analysts in the Aug. 30-Sept. 4 poll showed the loonie weakening about 1% to 1.365 in three months, versus 1.380 expected in an August poll.
In a year, the currency was predicted to advance 1.3% to 1.3333, compared to 1.3350 seen previously.
"The Canadian dollar has rallied quite a bit beyond our expectations," said Jimmy Jean, chief economist at Desjardins Group, adding the currency could weaken in the near term if expectations for "supersized" interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve begin to fade.
Investors are looking to Friday's U.S. and Canadian employment reports for clues on the prospect of central banks easing in steps of 50 rather than 25 basis points. A rise in the U.S. unemployment rate to near a three-year high of 4.3% in July rattled financial markets and ignited fears of a recession.
The BoC on Wednesday cut its benchmark interest rate for a third time since June, lowering the rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%. The Fed is expected to begin its easing cycle later this month.
Still, monetary policy tends to work with a lag so it could take some time before the global economy feels the effect of lower borrowing costs. Canada is a major producer of commodities, including oil, so the loonie tends to be sensitive to the global outlook.
The price of oil fell on Wednesday to its lowest level this year as lackluster data from the U.S. and China reinforced expectations of a weaker world economy.
"Later in 2025, the effects of those rate cuts should be more visible," Jean said. "We expect a bit of a pick-up in China and also Europe in the back end of 2025, so global demand pushing (up) oil prices a little bit."
(Other stories from the September Reuters foreign exchange poll)