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Canadian Dollar Expected To Decline Further as Bank of Canada Rate Cuts Eyed

Published 2023-12-06, 05:54 p/m
© Reuters.
USD/CAD
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By Ketki Saxena 

Investing.com –  The Canadian dollar edged lower against its US counterpart today, pressured by risk-off sentiment, a slide in crude prices, and the Bank of Canada’s decision to keep rates on hold at 5%. 

The Bank of Canada’s decision had been widely anticipated, and markets are now seeking to price in by when the BoC will begin cutting rates. 

Rate cuts from the Bank of Canada are currently priced in to begin H1 2024, however, further indications of weakness in the Canadian economy could hasten the move. 

Simon Harvey, head of FX analysis for Monex Europe and Monex Canada notes that soft economic data "should bring forward expectations of BoC easing, especially relative to the Federal Reserve”. 

"Earlier Bank of Canada easing is going to widen rate differentials in favor of USD-CAD."

Looking ahead for the pair, Harvey notes that “The Canadian dollar is going to face a difficult next three months as the data starts to look like the Canadian economy is teetering on the edge of recession if not in a mild recession.”

This is a view shared by the majority of analysts, as per a Reuters poll. 

The median forecast of 35 foreign exchange analysts surveyed by Reuters is for the loonie to strengthen to 1.3533 per U.S. dollar, or 73.89 U.S. cents, in three months. This compares with expectations for 1.3450 per US dollar in a November poll.

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