By Ketki Saxena
Investing.com -- The Canadian dollar rose against the USD today, as risk sentiment roared higher, as US labour market data that supported bets the US Federal Reserve may have reached the end of its monetary policy tightening campaign.
Despite the selloff in bonds appearing to have run out of steam, analysts at Rabobank note, “We cannot rule out further upside for the 10-year yield – which up to this point we would suggest has primarily been a function of rising term premium. However, we are calling for a sharp move lower to 4.45% by year-end.”
“Should this come to fruition then a move back below 1.36 could well be on the cards for USD/CAD, and we now forecast a year-end target just north of there at 1.3620.”
“We don’t expect much further upside for USD/CAD. Yet, a return to the 1.35 magnet we have been trading around is unlikely to materialize this year.:
Analysts at Scotiabank (TSX:BNS) also reiterate that a further decline in bond yields may be uncertain, but that their call is for a low-yield environment to support risk assets like equities and the CAD.
Analysts at Scotiabank note, “The volatility in the rates markets remains exceptional though so how much more of a decline in US bond yields we can see in the near-term is perhaps questionable. Still, the USD looks increasingly prone to some further reversal of its H2 rally now.”
“And the lower yield environment may well be teeing equity markets up for a year-end rally. A generally lower USD and higher stocks will be positives for the CAD.”
Next week for the pair, traders will be watching for the Bank of Canada’s release of its summary of the October 25th policy decision on Wednesday.
Not much else on the US or Canadian economic docket is likely to have an impact on the Canadian dollar.
On a technical level for the pair, analysts at FX Street note that “The USD/CAD is set for a decline back into the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 1.3625, with long-term declines seeing a price floor near 1.3500 at the 200-day SMA.”
“On the top side, a bullish break will need to find enough momentum to crack the 1.3900 handle before the USD/CAD can take another run at 12-month highs beyond late 2022’s peak of 1.3978.”