Investing.com – The Canadian dollar pared some losses vs its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday, after the previous session’s selloff.
Yesterday’s hotter than expected U.S. CPI data drove the loonie to its greatest decline in 11 months, as treasury yields rose, sentiment turned risk-off, and markets recalibrated expectations of rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The odds of a cut at the May meeting pared back significantly following the CPI release, with markets now fully pricing in that the easing cycle will begin in June.
Meanwhile, markets see a roughly 60% chance that the Bank of Canada will begin to cut interest rates in June.
Analysts expect the Canadian dollar to trade steadily as markets make peace with expectations for rate cuts from both central banks in June, with the Canadian dollar expected to stem its losses.
Analysts at Monex Canada note that “further evidence [of] weak growth filtering through to cooler inflation conditions before the currency weakens again.”
Amo Sahota, director at Klarity FX in San Francisco also notes that there shouldn’t be a “major breakdown for the loonie unless there is a dramatic shift in rate expectation timing for the two central banks”.
On a technical level for the pair, Michael Boutros, senior technical strategist at Forex.com comments that “USD/CAD is attempting to build on a breakout of the monthly opening-range with the advance now approaching initial resistance hurdles.”
“From a trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops on a stretch towards 1.3623 IF reached – losses should be limited to the monthly-open with a breach above channel resistance needed to mark resumption of the December uptrend."